Wednesday, September 5, 2012

AAPL: FYQ3 Consensus Too High, Says Pac Crest, But No Worries

Pacific Crest’s Andy Hargreaves this morning joins a growing crowd of analysts warning Apple (AAPL) will not make the consensus estimate for the fiscal Q3 ended in June, when it reports on July 24th, but that investors shouldn’t be overly worried.

Hargreaves, who has an Outperform rating on Apple shares, and a $690 price target, expects Apple sold 25.4 million iPhones last quarter, and 14.3 million iPad units, for revenue of $34.5 billion and EPS of $9.78.

Those numbers are below some reports I’ve seen for 28 million to 30 million iPhone units, and 16 million or so iPad units. And the financial estimate is�below the average estimate of $37.5 billion and $10.38 per share. Hargreaves also thinks the Q4 consensus of $38.3 billion and $10.31 is too high, with results probably more like $34.2 billion and $9.42.

But he thinks it’s not an issue, as investors are probably fixated on the introduction of the next iPhone model in the fall:

Investors remain appropriately focused on the potential for iPhone 5, which we continue to expect to launch in October. We expect the product to be supply constrained for several months, which suggests that component supply and production capacity are likely to dictate Apple�s 1HF2013 earnings power and the direction of its stock.

Hargreaves’s note is not unlike that of Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty yesterday, who also warned Apple may miss. Reports on Monday from Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster and R.W. Baird’s William Power also pegged Q3 below consensus.

Apple shares today are down 64 cents at $606.50.

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