Thursday, July 31, 2014

15 Stocks That Benefit From Dollar Strength

Bloomberg Fed Chair Janet Yellen

If you believe the greenback will be stronger for longer, domestic companies should outperform those with international exposure.

While the dollar has been “been on a tear,” Bespoke Investment Group writes that there is a case to be made for long-term strength. For one, the U.S. economy is gaining footing — GDP advanced at a 4% clip in the second quarter. And as the Federal Reserve continues to pull back on its asset purchasing program, even if rates aren’t spiking higher, Bespoke writes,

“as dovish as Janet Yellen and the rest of the FOMC may be, the days of zero interest rates are numbered and coming to an end.”

Based on the view that the dollar will continue to outperform most of its major global peers, Bespoke writes:

“We would also expect U.S. stocks, and more specifically stocks with domestic exposure, to outperform stocks [that are] more exposed to international markets. Another factor working in favor of domestically-focused U.S. stocks is gas prices. The national average price of a gallon of gas has declined every day this month for a total decline of 4.3%. … When the dollar is strong, companies with a large proportion of international revenue typically underperform, while companies with a larger percentage of domestic exposure outperform. Two sectors that have been negatively impacted by recent strength in the dollar are industrials and consumer staples.”

Carving out Standard & Poor’s 500 index names with mostly U.S. revenue, Bespoke says that if the dollar rallys, these stocks  – with positive trends — could outperform the broader market. A third of them are financials, two are utilities:

Apartment Invest & Management (AIV)
Ameriprise (AMP)
Edison International (EIX)
Host Hotels & Resorts (HST)
Kimco Realty (KIM)
Kroger (KR)
Lincoln National (LNC)
Newfield Exploration (NFX)
Republic Services (RSG)
UnitedHealth (UNH)
Verizon (VZ)
Wells Fargo (WFC)
WellPoint (WLP)
Wyndham Worldwide (WYN)
Xcel Energy Utilities (XEL)

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

DuPont Paints Brighter Dividend – 13 Dividend Stocks Increasing Payouts

Twitter Logo RSS Logo Jim Woods Popular Posts: 3 Chinese Stocks That Will Be Better Than AlibabaDuPont Paints Brighter Dividend – 13 Dividend Stocks Increasing PayoutsAlibaba IPO Date Influenced by Chinese Mysticism Recent Posts: DuPont Paints Brighter Dividend – 13 Dividend Stocks Increasing Payouts 3 Chinese Stocks That Will Be Better Than Alibaba Penske Sets the Pace for 10 Dividend Stocks Increasing Payouts View All Posts DuPont Paints Brighter Dividend – 13 Dividend Stocks Increasing Payouts

The term "paint the town red" usually refers to a rowdy public celebration of sorts. Well, this week, shareholders of paint and specialty chemical juggernaut DuPont (DD) have reason to paint the town red in celebration of the company's fresh dividend coat.

IncreasingDividends DuPont Paints Brighter Dividend   13 Dividend Stocks Increasing PayoutsWhile DuPont was likely the highest-profile dividend stock brightening up shareholder portfolios this week, 12 other dividend stocks opted to refresh payouts, including candy maker Hershey (HSY), and oil and gas drilling services firm Nabors Industries (NBR).

Let's take a closer look at all of this week's dividend stocks increasing payouts. (Yield as of 7/23.)

Community bank holding company Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB) added 3.2% to its quarterly dividend payout, increasing the payment to 23 cents per share. The new dividend will be paid Sept. 15 to shareholders of record as of Aug. 15. The stock goes ex-dividend on Aug. 13.
BHB Dividend Yield: 3.3%

Korean-American bank holding company BBCN Bancorp, Inc. (BBCN) turned up the dial on its payout by 33.3% to 10 cents per share from 7.5 cents. The new dividend is payable Aug. 15 to all shareholders of record as of Aug. 1. The stock goes ex-dividend on July 30.
BBCN Dividend Yield: 2.68%

BorgWarner Inc. (BWA) makes engineered components for vehicle power trains, and this week the company boosted the torque on its dividend by 4% to 13 cents per share. The new payout will roll out Sept. 16 to shareholders of record on Sept. 2. The stock goes ex-dividend Aug. 28.
BWA Dividend Yield: 0.79%

Marine engine and sports equipment maker Brunswick Corporation (BC) added some horsepower to its payout, upping its quarterly dividend on its common stock 25% to 12.5 cents per share from 10 cents. The new divvie is payable Sept. 15 to shareholders of record as of Aug. 25. The stock goes ex-dividend on Aug. 21.
BC Dividend Yield: 1.18%

Northwest regional bank holding company Columbia Banking System, Inc. (COLB) lifted its payout on common shares by nearly 17% to 14 cents per share from 12 cents. The payment is scheduled for Aug. 20 to shareholders of record as of Aug. 6. The stock goes ex-dividend on Aug. 4.
COLB Dividend Yield: 2.16%

DuPont (DD) was one of more than a dozen dividend stocks to increase its quarterly payout this week, and it did so via a 4.4% boost to shareholders. The new dividend was bumped higher by 2 cents per share to 47 cents from 45 cents. The new dividend is payable Sept. 12 to shareholders of record as of Aug, 15. The stock goes ex-dividend on Aug. 13.
DD Dividend Yield: 2.89%

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Candy and confectioner Hershey made the taste of its common stock dividend sweeter by 10% to 53.5 cents per share from 48.5 cents. The tastier payout will be made Sept. 15 to shareholders of record as of Aug. 25. The stock goes ex-dividend on Aug. 21.
HSY Dividend Yield: 2.33%

Lindsay Corp. (LNN) is the maker of irrigation systems and infrastructure products. This week, it dug into its financials and found 4% more money for shareholder dividends. The new payment of 27 cents per share is a penny more than the prior payout. The new dividend is payable Aug. 29 to shareholders of record as of Aug. 15. The stock goes ex-dividend on Aug. 13.
LNN Dividend Yield: 1.29%

Oil and gas drilling giant Nabors Industries is no stranger to going deep, and this week the company went deep down and came out with a whopping 50% dividend increase to 6 cents per share. The enhanced payout will begin on Sept. 30 to shareholders of record as of Sept. 9. The stock goes ex-dividend on Aug. 13. There was no ex-dividend date stated by Nabors.
NBR Dividend Yield: 0.81%

Natural gas midstream firm ONEOK (OKE), as well as its MLP structured ONEOK Partners, L.P. (OKS), increased their respective payments to shareholders. OKE added to its payment by 3% to 57.5 cents per share. OKS upped its payment 2% to 76 cents per share. Both OKE and OKS payments will be made Aug. 14 to shareholders of record as of Aug. 4. Both securities go ex-dividend on July 31.
OKE Dividend Yield: 3.44%, OKS Dividend Yield: 5.3%.

Provident Financial Holdings (PROV), the holding company for Provident Savings Bank, added 10% to its dividend. The new payment now is 11 cents per share from the previous 10 cents. The new payout will be sent Sept. 3 to shareholders of record as of Aug. 12. The stock goes ex-dividend on Aug. 8.
PROV Dividend Yield: 3.03%

Republic Services (RSG) is the second-largest waste management/trash hauler in the country. This week the company announced it was giving back 7.7% more money to shareholders, increasing its dividend payment to 28 cents from 26 cents. The new dividend will be paid on Oct. 15 to shareholders of record as of Oct. 1. No ex-dividend date for the payment was given.
RSG Dividend Yield: 2.98%

As of this writing, Jim Woods did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Sunday, July 27, 2014

3 Can't-Miss Quotes From UnitedHealth Group's CEO

UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH  ) is the nation's largest insurer and the company just put up solid second-quarter results that may suggest good news is coming from competitors, including WellPoint (NYSE: WLP  ) .

The second quarter was particularly important to the industry given it marked the first full quarter following the close of Obamacare's first open enrollment period. 

UNH Chart

UNH data by YCharts.

In the following slideshow, I highlight three important quotes from UnitedHealth's CEO that offer insight into the affects of health care exchanges and Medicaid expansion.

Top dividend stocks for the next decade that may make UnitedHealth investors jealous
The smartest investors know that dividend stocks simply crush their non-dividend paying counterparts over the long term. That's beyond dispute. They also know that a well-constructed dividend portfolio creates wealth steadily, while still allowing you to sleep like a baby. Knowing how valuable such a portfolio might be, our top analysts put together a report on a group of high-yielding stocks that should be in any income investor's portfolio. To see our free report on these stocks, just click here now.

Friday, July 25, 2014

Saudi Arabia: The next big emerging market?

saudi arabia map Emerging market investors are keen to tap Saudi Arabia's stock market. ABU DHABI (CNNMoney) Get ready for the next big emerging market opportunity: Saudi Arabia.

The oil giant is set to open its stock market to direct foreign investment for the first time, giving outsiders access to the biggest bourse in the region.

The Saudi market -- worth an estimated $530 billion -- is more than double the size of the Tel Aviv stock exchange in Israel.

Full market opening is still some way off but investors are already salivating at the prospect after the Saudi government gave regulators the green light.

"This is a deeply liquid market with lots of sectors to play around with," said Saleem Khokhar, head of equities at the National Bank of Abu Dhabi's asset management group. "It trades $2-3 billion a day, so you can expect a lot of volume coming through from overseas."

Saudi Arabia's Capital Market Authority will begin opening up the market in the first half of 2015.

Direct investment is currently limited to citizens of Saudi Arabia and five neighboring Gulf states.

The move by Saudi Arabia could help diversify its economy and allow it to join the league of major emerging market players such as India and Brazil.

Last month, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates were upgraded to emerging market status by index compiler MSCI, allowing them to tap a capital pool worth about $1.5 trillion worldwide.

An MSCI spokesman told CNNMoney the Saudi announcement was encouraging but the country's classification would depend on how it opens up to foreigners.

"We've seen in the past that when markets open up, they open up gradually," said Rami Sidani, head of frontier markets investments at Schroders, noting that various regulations have to be put in place over the coming months.

The benchmark Tadawul All Share Index has surged by just over 17% since the start of the year. It has more than 150 companies operating in sectors including construction, insurance, energy and banking.

The index jumped by nearly 3% after the government announced its market liberalization plan.

"This will certainly put the region back on international investors' radar and is likely to be transformative for regional equities," said Bassel Khatoun, head of Middle East equities at Franklin Templeton Investments.

The International Monetary Fund called Saudi Arabia one of the best performing G20 economies in recent years. It grew by 4% last year and should do even better in 2014.

Thursday, July 24, 2014

MetLife SIFI Designation Imminent

MetLife could be designated a systemically important financial institutions (SIFI) as early as next week, Bloomberg News said today, even though the article did not name a source.

John Nadel, an analyst at Sterne, Agee and Leach in New York, said he was not surprised and that institutional investors had been expecting it. “For some time, it has been just a question of when,” Nadel said.

Suzanne Elio, a Treasury spokeswoman, declined to comment on the possible designation of MetLife, but did confirm that the Financial Stability Oversight Council will hold a meeting next Thursday, July 31, and that nonbank designations are on the agenda.

John Calagna, a MetLife spokesman, declined to comment.

If designated a SIFI, MetLife will be subjected to stricter capital, leverage and liquidity requirements as a result of supervision by the Federal Reserve Board as well as state regulators. It would join American International Group and Prudential Financial as insurance SIFIs. General Electric Capital Corp. is the only other non-bank SIFI.

However, Janet Yellen, chairman of the Federal Reserve, has made clear in congressional testimony that insurance companies are different than banks, and that the Fed is in the process of creating metrics and adjusting its regulation to recognize the differences.

It could also demand stress testing for crisis scenarios, but stronger regulation of insurance SIFIs is unlikely to be unveiled until next year.

Steve Kandarian, MetLife chairman and CEO, acknowledged that in comments to MetLife institutional investors June 10. He said then that it was too early to know exactly what a systemic designation would mean for his company. Regulators “could still come up with draft rules that we would find reasonable or come up with draft rules that maybe we wouldn’t find as reasonable,” he said.

In designating MetLife at this time, the FSOC would be ignoring the House Financial Services Committee (FSC). The panel reported out two pieces of legislation that would establish at least a moratorium of up to one year on SIFI designations. The conservative leadership of the House FSC arguments that the FSOC SIFI designation process “is not transparent.”

At a June 24 hearing of the FSC, Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew disagreed. He testified that the FSOC process is transparent, and argued that House members and others who criticize it as “opaque” are “simply wrong.”

MetLife has been in Stage Three, the final stage of the FSOC designation process, for more than a year. The FSOC decided to re-evaluate its process for designating insurance companies as SIFIs after running into internal opposition to its ultimate designation of Prudential Financial as a SIFI.

These included Roy Woodall, the independent FSOC member with insurance expertise, as well as John Huff, the Missouri insurance commissioner and one of five non-voting members of the FSOC, and Ed DeMarco, acting head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). Pru was first designated a SIFI in late March of last year, but requested a hearing, as allowed under FSOC regulations. It was ultimately designated a SIFI Oct. 31. A two-thirds vote of the council is required to label a company systemically important.

A SIFI designation has been aggressively challenged by Steve Kandarian, MetLife chairman and CEO. As part of a Washington lobbying campaign last year, he met with analysts, members of the Chamber of Commerce and members of Congress. His argument is that, “We truly believe we’re not systemically important.”

MetLife executives have met more than 10 times with council staff members to argue it doesn’t pose a risk.

The council vote would be a proposed designation, and MetLife would have 30 days to request a hearing before the FSOC to contest the decision. After a hearing, the regulators would hold a final vote on whether to designate MetLife. The company reports earnings after the market closing July 30 and will hold an investor call July 31, the same day the FSOC is planning to meet.

---

Check out Dodd-Frank’s FSOC Under Fire as Americans Push for Wall Street Crackdown on ThinkAdvisor.

Deep Green: Can a Robot Manage Your Money Better Than a Human?

Conceptual image of business woman without head and daily routine icons instead. Artificial intelligence concept Hasloo Group Production Studio/Shutterstock Historically, when Americans invested their money with a financial adviser, they wanted to walk into an office, shake hands and sit across the desk from the person they were entrusting their money to. There's something about looking a person in the eye that helps engender trust and confidence. But as technology improved and became ubiquitous, those sit-down meetings increasingly began to be replaced with phone calls, or sometimes just email exchanges. Now, a new generation of money management firms like Wealthfront, Betterment and Motif Investing is taking that concept a step farther, betting that today's investors will not even want to deal with a live adviser. Instead, their platforms are designed to allow you to invest your money with all the customized finesse that comes from having an adviser –- but without ever interacting with one. It's the dawn of the "robo-adviser," but whether you'll consider this innovation a good fit for you might depend on which side of the generational gap you fall on. Answer the Questions These robo-adviser firms customize their adviser-like investing services by asking customers a complex series of questions when they first open their accounts online. The tools, say proponents, can determine a client's risk profile and suggest asset allocations better than a human adviser can. And because the process is automated, it is extremely efficient, allowing these firms to offer their services -- and an increasingly complex set of investing tools -- at a very low cost. But the question you have to ask yourself -- before answering all their questions -- is, "Am I comfortable investing with an algorithm alone?" An algorithm, after all, simply takes a given set of information -- the data points in this case being your answers to series of questions -- and follows a set of clearly-defined steps to calculate a solution -- in this case, the answer to the question, "How should I in best invest my money?" At it's core, it's same process through which companies like Google (GOOG) figure out which ads to serve up to you, Amazon (AMZN) suggests books it thinks you will like, or Netflix (NFLX) reviews your previously viewed movies to determine other films you'll want to watch. Still, though algorithms have quietly become a pervasive part of our everyday lives, financial services has traditionally been a "high-touch" business -- one that demands plenty of personal interaction. But that's not as important to millennials, as technology has taken the place of face-to-face interaction, allowing even the business of dating to be transformed by sites like Match.com and apps like Tinder. Go for a Test Drive, With a Little Bit of Money For those in Generation X (or older), that may not be such an easy transition to make when it comes to your money. However, there is a simple way to determine if a robo-adviser is right for you. Test it out. Often, people look at investing as an all-or-nothing endeavor -- as if their capital has to go into either stocks or bonds, they have to be "in the market" or "on the sidelines," investing with an adviser or without one. But the same technology that gave birth to the robo-adviser gives you the ability to test-drive different investing products with a low initial investment. So if robo-advisers intrigue you, sample the concept with a small amount of your funds. There is no cost to open an account with a robo-adviser firm, and it can be done quickly and safely from your computer, with no obligation. Test out the tools and services that are offered. See if you like what they are doing with your investments, and if you are comfortable with the user experience. If you are, then you can move over as much, or as little, as you want. And if you don't think a robo-adviser is right for you after trying one out, you can close your account and take your money out with the click of a button. Company: Oracle Cash compensation: $5.5 million Stock and options: $90.7 million Total compensation 1-year change: 24% Despite his $1 salary, Ellison is not only the highest paid tech CEO this year, but the highest paid of all CEOs.

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Brent Slides Despite International Instability

Related BNO Brent Near $108 Ahead Of Inventory Data Brent Steady With Geopolitical Tension In Focus Related DBE Geopolitical Tension Back In The Driver Seat For Crude Oil Prices Up On Chinese And U.S. Demand

Brent crude oil retreated on Wednesday, shaking off supply worries due to geopolitical tension and falling under pressure from an oversupplied market.

The commodity traded at $107.21 at 8:40 GMT on Wednesday morning as investors awaited US inventory data, due out later in the day.

Russia, the world’s largest oil supplier, has been under the microscope as accusations were made that Moscow was to blame for the downed Malaysian Airlines passenger plane last week.

On Tuesday, the European Union threatened further sanctions against Moscow, but has yet to take action.

CNBC reported that French officials have confirmed that the nation will move forward with a planned delivery of a warship to Moscow this week, something both the US and the UK have been protesting.

Related Link: Halliburton Benefits From Consumption, Cost Cutting & Political Warmth To Fracking

Instability in Libya is also on the radar as the nation’s government is still struggling with rebel groups.  This week two suicide bombers took out an army base in Benghazi, highlighting the government’s lack of control over the deteriorating situation.

Libyan oil exports dropped to 450,000 barrels per day on Monday, down from 555,000 bpd on Thursday. Despite that, Libya’s National Oil Company is optimistic about the planned reopening of its Brega oil port, which would increase the region’s production.

Moving forward, investors will be anticipating the Energy Information Administration’s oil inventory report, due out later in the day. Analysts are expecting the data to show that US crude inventories fell 2.8 million barrels last week.

On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute’s version of the same report showed that US crude stocks were down 555,000 barrels last week.

Posted-In: News Commodities Forex Global Pre-Market Outlook Markets Best of Benzinga

© 2014 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

  Most Popular Analysts Comment On Apple Before Q3 Earnings UPDATE: UBS Raises Price Target On Apple Earnings Scheduled For July 22, 2014 Morgan Stanley Needs Better Entry Point For General Electric Microsoft Cloud Results, Nokia Key To Fiscal Q4 And Outlook Microsoft Misses FQ4 Bottom Line On 17% Revenue Growth Related Articles (BNO + BROAD) EU Sanctions Against Russia Likely On The Way Brent Near $108 Ahead Of Inventory Data Euro Steady Above $1.35 With Markets Subdued Brent Steady With Geopolitical Tension In Focus Euro Steady At $1.35 Amid Glob

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

5 Defense Stocks to Trade for Gains This Week

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- Geopolitical turmoil has been ramping up anxiety in the markets in 2014, with escalating conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. No names are more exposed to that news cycle than the defense contractors, but by and large, defense stocks haven't moved much in reaction to the headlines. Until now.

>>5 Hated Earnings Stocks You Should Love

After trailing the S&P 500 to start the year, defense contractors are starting to show some signs of life again. And as anxiety creeps higher this earnings season, the defensive investment properties of defense contractors could help secure your gains this year – especially as breakout trades start popping up in the individual names.

So today, we're taking a closer technical look at five defense sector stocks that look ready to move higher.

For the unfamiliar, technical analysis is a way for investors to quantify qualitative factors, such as investor psychology, based on a stock's price action and trends. Once the domain of cloistered trading teams on Wall Street, technicals can help top traders make consistently profitable trades and can aid fundamental investors in better planning their stock execution.

>>5 Rocket Stocks to Buy for Blastoff Earnings Season Gains

Without further ado, let's take a look at five technical setups worth trading now.

Lockheed Martin


Up first is $52 billion defense contracting giant Lockheed Martin (LMT). Lockheed has actually turned out some impressive performance year-to-date: Shares of the defense and aerospace firm have rallied more than 10% since the start of the year. But a long-term bullish setup points to even higher ground in the second half of 2014.

>>4 Big-Volume Stocks in Breakout Territory

Lockheed Martin is currently forming an ascending triangle pattern, a bullish setup that's formed by horizontal resistance above shares (in this case at $167) and uptrending support to the downside. Basically, as LMT bounces in between those two technically important levels, it's getting squeezed closer and closer to a breakout above that $167 price ceiling. When that happens, we've got our buy signal in LMT.

Why all of that significance at $167? It all comes down to buyers and sellers. Price patterns are a good quick way to identify what's going on in the price action, but they're not the actual reason a stock is tradable. Instead, the "why" comes down to basic supply and demand for Lockheed's stock.

The $167 resistance level is a price where there has been an excess of supply of shares; in other words, it's a spot where sellers have previously been more eager to step in and take gains than buyers have been to buy. That's what makes a breakout above $167 so significant -- the move means that buyers are finally strong enough to absorb all of the excess supply above that price level.

This morning's second-quarter earnings release could be a catalyst to help propel LMT up to test resistance at $167, but it's important to remember not to buy shares in anticipation of the breakout. Instead, the high-probability trade is all about being reactionary. Shares have been swatted down on their last four attempts through $167, so it's key to wait for that price level to get taken out before you buy.

CAE

Moving down the food chain brings us to CAE (CAE) a Canadian mid-cap defense and aerospace stock that's forming a tradable breakout setup of its own right now.

>>4 Hot Stocks to Trade (or Not)

CAE is forming a rectangle pattern, a price setup that's formed by a pair of horizontal resistance and support levels that basically "box in" shares between $13.75 and $12.80. Consolidations like the one in CAE are common after big moves (like the one that started last fall); they give the stock a chance to bleed off momentum as buyers and sellers figure out their next move.

Rectangles are "if/then patterns" – put a different way, if CAE breaks out through resistance at $13.75, then traders have a buy signal. Otherwise, if the stock violates support at $12.80, then the high-probability trade is a sell. Since CAE's price action leading up to the rectangle was an uptrend, it favors breaking out above $13.75.

General Dynamics


$40 billion defense name General Dynamics (GD) has been one of the best-performing stocks in the sector this year. Since the calendar flipped to January, GD is up close to 24%. From here, shares look primed to keep up that trajectory in the second half of 2014, and you don't need to be an expert technical trader to figure out why.

>>5 Stocks Ready for Breakouts

General Dynamics has spent almost all year bouncing its way higher in a well-defined uptrending channel, a pair of parallel trend lines that's provided traders with a high probability range for shares of GD to trade within. When it comes to trend channels, up is good and down is bad – it's really just as simple as that. Every successive test of trend line support has provided an optimal entry point for traders looking for buying opportunities in GD, so as shares bounce off of support for a fourth time here, now's a good time to join the buyers.

The 50-day moving average has been a good proxy for support on the way up since the channel started. That makes it a logical place to keep a protective stop if you decide to jump in on the move.

Esterline Technologies


Mid-cap defense contractor Esterline Technologies (ESL) is another stock that's showing traders the exact same simple trade setup this week. Like GD, ESL has been bouncing its way higher in an uptrending channel for most of 2014. Out simply, it's a "buy the dips stock", and from here, it makes sense to be a buyer on the next bounce off of trend line support.

>>5 Dividend Stocks Ready to Pay You More

Waiting for a bounce off of trend line support is a key risk management strategy for ESL buyers for two big reasons: It's the spot where shares have the furthest to move up before they hit resistance, and it's also the spot where the risk is the least (because shares have the least room to move lower before you know you're wrong). Remember, all trend lines do eventually break, but by actually waiting for the bounce to happen first, you're ensuring Esterline can actually still catch a bid along that line before you put your money on shares.

Today looks like a good opportunity to get in on ESL's latest trend line bounce.
Raytheon



Not all names we're looking at today are bullish. $30 billion defense name Raytheon (RTN) has been looking anemic for most of 2014, and now traders are getting a pretty strong signal that it's time to be a seller. Here's why.

Raytheon is currently forming a broadening top pattern, a technical setup that looks exactly like it sounds. The setup formed by a pair of support and resistance levels that are diverging after a big move higher. The real problem of a broadening top is the fact that it indicates downside volatility is getting injected into shares. Like the setup we saw in CAE, Raytheon's pattern is a breakdown trade. That means a move through support (currently at $90) is the sell signal.

But I wouldn't recommend waiting that long. Since support is trending lower in RTN, shares can move substantially lower without actually ever breaking down through that downsloping support level. For that reason, it makes sense to sell RTN here rather than wait.

That's confirmed by relative strength right now. RTN's relative strength uptrend broke in late April, a signal that shares are statistically more apt to underperform the S&P 500 for the next three-to-ten month span. There are plenty of bullish defense sector names worth buying this week -- but Raytheon isn't one of them.

To see this week's trades in action, check out the Technical Setups for the Week portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Jonas Elmerraji in Baltimore.


RELATED LINKS:



>>5 Big Stocks to Trade for Gains This Summer



>>5 Stocks With Big Insider Buying



>>3 Huge Tech Stocks on Traders' Radars

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Jonas Elmerraji, CMT, is a senior market analyst at Agora Financial in Baltimore and a contributor to

TheStreet. Before that, he managed a portfolio of stocks for an investment advisory returned 15% in 2008. He has been featured in Forbes , Investor's Business Daily, and on CNBC.com. Jonas holds a degree in financial economics from UMBC and the Chartered Market Technician designation.

Follow Jonas on Twitter @JonasElmerraji


Chipotle Mexican Grill: Spicy Earnings Give After-Market Lift

Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) have surged higher in after-hours trading after the restaurant chain blew away earnings and revenue forecasts.

Associated Press

Chipotle Mexican Grill reported a profit of $3.50, topping the Street consensus for $3.08, on revenue of $1.05 billion, beating forecasts for $988.94 million. At the same time, same store sales rose 17.3%. Yowsers.

Belus Capital Advisors’ Brian Sozzi loves what he sees from Chipotle:

Another quarter of sequential acceleration for Chipotle’s same-store sales to a whopping 17.3%.  However, unlike the first quarter, Chipotle brought more of those strong sales to the bottom line, and blew away consensus estimates.

The read: as more of Chipotle’s markets are touched with menu price increases this quarter, the company is teed up for at least another two quarter of strong earnings growth that could materially surpass consensus (the amount of unknown as consensus estimates will climb following this report).

Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill have gained 9.9% to 648.32 in after-hours trading. 

Thursday, July 17, 2014

2 Reasons BHP Billiton Could Get a Higher Price for These Assets

BHP Billiton's (NYSE: BHP  ) Nickel West unit in Australia has been on investors' radar ever since the mining giant announced that it may spin off or divest its non-core assets, which also include its manganese and aluminum mining businesses. It is expected that Andrew Mackenzie, who took over the reins of the company last year, plans to make a final call on these businesses by the year-end. For Nickel West, BHP Billiton couldn't have asked for a better time. According to Citigroup's latest survey, the nickel market is set to fall into a big deficit next year.

Also, Sirius, an Australian mining company based in Western Australia has supposedly found a mine with high-grade nickel concentrates. The company is on the lookout for smelters for their ore supplies. It is believed that if BHP Billiton could ink a supply deal with Sirius, then a steady flow of high-quality ores could substantially reduce smelting costs, and as a result Nickel West could fetch a higher valuation.

Nickel's rally
It has been a remarkable year for nickel, thanks mainly to the export ban placed on mineral ores by Indonesia. Indonesia's ban on mineral ore exports has helped many base metals, including nickel, to bounce back following last year's pounding. Indeed, nickel, which was the worst performing base metal in 2013, has now climbed about 40% year to date in the backdrop of a strengthening global economy and falling supplies. A surge in nickel prices should help miners such as Vale (NYSE: VALE  ) and Norilsk Nickel (NASDAQOTH: NILSY  ) , as well as BHP Billiton, which is looking to offload its nickel assets.

Last Thursday, though, nickel futures slipped 1.4% at the London Metal Exchange amid speculation that Indonesia might change its policy stance on the export ban following the presidential election. Since Indonesia accounts for about 20% of the world's nickel-ore exports, lifting the ban could flood the market with the key raw material required to manufacture stainless steel.

Additionally, expectations that global nickel supplies were adequate to last all through the year also weighed on prices last week. In a previous article on nickel, I was also doubtful of nickel's continued rally. Back then, I cited Mike Dragostis, a senior market strategist at TD Securities, stating that nickel demand ex-China was weak while the global inventory level was adequate.

Any weakness in the nickel market would be bad news for BHP Billiton as it would have a negative impact on valuations. However, the company can take heart from two important factors that could help it fetch a higher price for Nickel West.

Faster-than-expected depletion due to export ban
Earlier this week, Citigroup forecasted that global nickel supplies could deplete this year at a faster-than-expected rate. As a result, the nickel market, which was forecasted to end in a surplus this year, is now expected to fall into a deficit, the report says. Moreover, the nickel market is slated to go through a huge deficit in 2015, according to Citigroup.

As I mentioned in an article back in May, Macquarie Bank forecasted that global nickel supplies would be reduced by 25% or 482,000 tons due to Indonesia's decision to ban mineral ore exports.

Morgan Stanley estimated that the ban would bring down the nickel surplus to 70,000 tons in 2014 from last year's 173,000 tons. The bank also forecasted that the nickel market would fall into a deficit of 60,000 tons in 2015.

In its previous forecast, Citigroup expected a surplus of 30,100 tons in 2014 and a deficit of 132,200 tons in 2015.

But the supply squeeze of nickel ore caused by Indonesia's export ban has substantially reduced China's imports. Indeed, according to Citigroup, China's nickel ore imports from Indonesia plunged 99% in May, year-on-year.

Citigroup now expects that the nickel market will fall into a deficit of 3,000 tons this year while the deficit will widen to 134,000 tons, next year. The bank now estimates average nickel prices will climb by 12% to $18,550 a ton.

Moreover, the ban on ore exports is likely to continue. According to Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd, expectations that Indonesia may relax its export ban should business-friendly candidate Joko Widodo defeat his rival Prabowo Subianto, is misplaced as none of the candidates have given any indication on removing export ban.

A deal with Sirius could boost interest in Nickel West
Australian miner, Sirius Resources NL, has seen its stock skyrocket after it found a high-purity nickel mine in Western Australia two years ago. The production is expected to begin in 2016, and the company can provide up to 26,000 tons of nickel ore annually. Earlier on Monday, Sirius revealed that its high-grade Nova deposit could produce nickel at $2.09 per pound, which is way below today's market price of $8.79 per pound. Thus sourcing nickel concentrates from Sirius could substantially bolster a smelter's margins. Sirius is in late-stage talks with many major nickel smelters.

This high-quality mine is not far away from BHP Billiton's Nickel West assets. It is believed that BHP Billiton does not have a steady supply of high-quality feed for its smelting facility located at Kalgoorlie. Although, BHP Billiton has declined to comment over the matter, it is believed that should the miner enter in a deal with Sirius, it could generate more buying interests for Nickel West as steady source of high-quality concentrates would offer economies of scale.

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Why UnitedHealth Group Will Move the Dow Tomorrow

The strong results we've seen in the first week of earnings season have helped push the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) to fresh intraday highs. Yet tomorrow morning, Dow investors will get a new read on the economy from a different perspective, as health-insurance giant UnitedHealth (NYSE: UNH  ) will give its latest results. Even as most investors will be focused on how UnitedHealth does compared to WellPoint (NYSE: WLP  ) and other insurance peers, UnitedHealth's results will have implications for Dow companies elsewhere in the health care sector. With reform affecting all corners of the health care market, investors can't afford to watch only a single part of the sector to get a full understanding of the state of the industry.

UnitedHealth expects to release its earnings report before the market opens Thursday morning -- last quarter's report was available to the public just after 6 a.m. EDT. The Dow component will then hold a conference call at 8:45 a.m. EDT to discuss the results.


Source: UnitedHealth.

Investors aren't entirely confident about UnitedHealth's prospects, with expectations that revenue will rise while net income levels fall. It's tempting to blame health care reform for the earnings shortfall, and indeed, adapting to the new requirements of the Affordable Care Act and other federal program guidelines has taken substantial effort for UnitedHealth. One of the biggest risks that UnitedHealth, WellPoint, and their peers have to deal with is the potential for dramatic cuts in reimbursement rates from Medicare and other federal and state-government programs. Obamacare in particular has increased reliance on Medicaid, and while that has helped bolster customer counts for health insurers, it also makes insurers even more dependent on what the government decides is appropriate payment for the services that UnitedHealth and its peers arrange for.

Source: University of Michigan Medical School Information Services, Flickr.

But UnitedHealth faces some other issues that have held back its performance recently. Pharmaceutical companies both within and outside the Dow Jones Industrial Average have seen substantial growth lately, with blockbuster drugs coming to market and helping to replace revenue from older drugs that have lost patent protection. For UnitedHealth, WellPoint, and other health insurers, though, brand-name drugs represent a huge cost of business, eating into their profit margins and diverting income toward pharma giants. Similarly, medical-device innovations can boost prospects for the companies that produce and sell them, but high-priced equipment often leads to higher costs for procedures, and that can crimp UnitedHealth's profits as well.

UnitedHealth will move the Dow tomorrow as investors look not only at the prospects for the health insurance industry, but also at its interaction with drug companies and other health care providers. In the fixed-sum game of health-care reform, gains for UnitedHealth almost certainly come at the expense of other players in the industry, and Dow investors must accurately assess which companies will feel the brunt of any pain that helps UnitedHealth boost its profits.

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Tuesday, July 15, 2014

It's Time to Talk About Taboo Money Topics with Your Kids

C4WD2P USA, New Jersey, Jersey City, Mother giving money to teenage daughter (14-15). Image shot 2011. Exact date unknown.  stan Alamy While a recent survey by Citi (C) shows that nine out of 10 parents teach their kids about money and 59 percent say they talk to their kids about personal finance, there are still a few financial topics that parents prefer not to discuss. "Our survey findings showed that most parents have begun discussing finances with their children before age 13, and nearly half of respondents said that sensitive financial topics are not off-limits for conversations with their children," says Linda Descano, a personal finance expert with Citi. "However, the topics that most respondents found off-limits were 'the amount of money I make' (with 28 percent believing this was off-limits), 'the amount of savings we have' (27 percent) and 'the amount of debt we have' (26 percent)."

Monday, July 14, 2014

Mid-Afternoon Market Update: Harmonic Drops On Weak Forecast; URS Shares Surge

Related BZSUM Harmonic Drops On Weak Forecast; URS Shares Surge Mid-Morning Market Update: Markets Open Higher; Citigroup Profit Beats Street View

In the early parts of the final hour of trading Monday, the Dow traded up 0.71 percent to 17,064.15 while the NASDAQ gained 0.66 percent to 4,444.86. The S&P also rose, gaining 0.53 percent to 1,978.03.

Leading and Lagging Sectors

Telecommunications services shares jumped around 1.19 percent in today’s trading. Top gainers in the sector included NQ Mobile (NYSE: NQ), China Unicom (Hong Kong) (NYSE: CHU), and Partner Communications Company (NASDAQ: PTNR).

In trading on Monday, utilities shares fell by 0.31 percent. Top losers in the sector included Exelon (NYSE: EXC), down 2.34 percent, and NRG Energy (NYSE: NRG), off 2.24 percent.

Top Headline

Citigroup (NYSE: C) reported better-than-expected second-quarter results.

Citigroup’s quarterly net profit fell to $181 million, or $0.03 per share, versus a year-ago profit of $4.18 billion, or $1.34 per share. Its adjusted net profit came in at $3.9 billion, or $1.24 per share. Its revenue slipped 6% to $19.3 billion from $20.48 billion. Excluding CVA/DVA, revenue fell 3% to $19.4 billion. However, analysts were estimating earnings of $1.06 per share on revenue of $18.92 billion.

The bank also announced its plans to pay $7 billion to settle the ongoing investigation of the Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Working Group.

Equities Trading UP

Exelixis (NASDAQ: EXEL) shares shot up 21.18 percent to $4.03 after the company announced positive phase 3 data for coBRIM.

Shares of Kandi Technolgies Group (NASDAQ: KNDI) got a boost, shooting up 20.24 percent to $17.70 on report of a 238% rise in EV sales.

URS (NYSE: URS) shares were also up, gaining 11.76 percent to $58.14 after Aecom Technology (NYSE: ACM) announced its plans to buy URS for $4 billion in cash and stock.

Equities Trading DOWN

Shares of Harmonic (NASDAQ: HLIT) were down 13.46 percent to $6.18 after the company lowered its Q2 forecast and issued a weak Q3 guidance.

Riverbed Technology (NASDAQ: RVBD) shares tumbled 6.77 percent to $18.97 after the company lowered its Q2 revenue forecast.

GT Advanced Technologies (NASDAQ: GTAT) was down, falling 5.92 percent to $15.10 after cautious comments by CLSA.

Commodities

In commodity news, oil traded down 0.13 percent to $100.70, while gold traded down 2.33 percent to $1,306.30.

Silver traded down 2.47 percent Monday to $20.93, while copper fell 0.50 percent to $3.25.

Euro zone

European shares were higher today. The eurozone’s STOXX 600 rose 0.94 percent, the Spanish IBEX Index surged 0.64 percent, while Italy’s FTSE MIB Index climbed 0.40 percent. Meanwhile, the German DAX rose 1.21 percent and the French CAC 40 climbed 0.78 percent while UK shares gained 0.99 percent.

Economics

The Treasury is set to auction 3-and 6-month bills.

Posted-In: Eurozone Futures Commodities Top Stories Economics Markets Movers

© 2014 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

  Most Popular Earnings Expectations For The Week Of July 14: Big Banks, Tech Giants And More UPDATE: Barclays Upgrades Apple, Has High Expectations For Near Term GT Advanced Technologies Down Sharply On iPhone Production Concerns Phone Arena Reports Apple's 5.5-inch iPhone 6 Could be Delayed Until 2015 Stocks To Watch For July 14, 2014 #PreMarket Primer: Monday, July 14: Germany Wins World Cup 1-0 Related Articles (ACM + BZSUM) Mid-Day Market Update: Harmonic Drops On Weak Forecast; URS Shares Surge Harmonic Drops On Weak Forecast; URS Shares Surge Top Performing Industries For July 14, 2014 Benzinga's Volume Movers Mid-Morning Market Update: Markets Open Higher; Citigroup Profit Beats Street View Morning Market Movers Around the Web, We're Loving... We're Now Hiring Real-Time Journal

Friday, July 11, 2014

The Dog Days of Summer

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The June 2014 Australian Edge/Canadian Edge/Utility Forecaster online web chat was postponed by a week due to an unexpected medical emergency for my Golden Retriever.

Participation was still robust, thanks to a highly engaged group of readers.

Utility stocks set the pace for the broader market over the first six months of 2014, as fears of rising interest rates abated and companies produced solid first-quarter financial and operating numbers.

Second-quarter reporting season will get underway later in July, with most management teams posting results in early August.

There's also been significant mergers-and-acquisitions rumor and activity, notably surrounding the telecom space. And Wisconsin Energy Corp (NYSE: WEC) last week announced a deal to buy UF Portfolio Holding Integrys Energy Group Inc (NYSE: TEG) for $9.1 billion in cash, stock and assumed debt.

Canadian stocks are back to their winning ways thus far in 2014, with the S&P/TSX Composite Index posting a 12.5 percent total return in US dollar terms from Dec. 31, 2013, through June 30, 2014. The S&P 500 Index is up 7.1 percent, the MSCI World Index 6.6 percent.

The loonie, meanwhile, was strong in June, bouncing back to near USD0.94 and having an essentially neutral impact for US-based investors' returns for the first six months of the year.

The Australia dollar pushed out to an eight-month high earlier this week, as Chinese PMI data showed some stabilization in the economy for that key trading partner. Although iron ore prices remain depressed, several LNG projects coming on line in coming months should give a boost to Australian exports.

Aussie strength has had a clear positive impact for US-based investors who are long Australian stocks. The S&P/ASX 200 Index trailed the S&P 500 and the MSCI World Index with a 3 percent return in local terms. Accounting for the impact of a stronger ! aussie on US investors' holdings, the S&P/ASX was up 8.8 percent from Dec. 31, 2013, through June 30, 2014.

Here are highlights in the form of a slightly edited transcript from the July 2 "June" AE/CE/UF Online Chat.

Question: Hello, David, I hope you're enjoying the summer. I have two questions. First, your take on the Wisconsin Energy acquisition of Integrys. I have positions in both, and I'm glad to receive more Wisconsin Energy stock.

Interestingly I did the math and discovered that if I used the cash portion of the proceeds to buy more Wisconsin Energy, my total dividends that I had been receiving from Integrys would actually decline by a few dollars at Wisconsin Energy's current dividend rate.

Do you see a good potential for Wisconsin Energy to raise its dividend after the merger?

Second, your thoughts on Consolidated Communications Holding Inc (NSDQ: CNSL). I have a large position with an average cost of under 16. Thanks, UF!

Of course I'm very happy with the dividend since my yield on cost is about 10 percent. However, with the stock at the highest level I've seen, is it a good idea to take some off the table? I don't want to sell if the dividend is secure since I don't have any good prospects to replace it with an equivalent, relatively safe yield.

Is there any reasonable prospect of a dividend increase, in your opinion? Thanks.

Answer: I like Wisconsin Energy's move for Integrys and will likely add Wisconsin Energy to the UF Portfolio. Wisconsin Energy is a well-run utility. Adding Integrys, with geographically proximate Midwest asset, increases scale and will result in a company with 60 percent ownership in the FERC-regulated American Transmission Company.

Wisconsin Energy reiterated its commitment to 7 percent to 8 percent annual dividend growth with a target payout ratio of 65 percent to 70 percent.

I think it’s a good deal for Integrys shareholders. And I think your observation about deployment ! of the ca! sh component is a wise one, as, again, we will very likely add Wisconsin to the portfolio in the August issue.

I have Integrys rated a hold pending completion of the merger. The stock has come back a bit, and there could be an arbitrage opportunity for traders. For longer-term buy-and-hold investors Wisconsin Energy is a good choice at these levels.

I think the best hope for Consolidated Communications is dividend sustainability, which at these levels is, in my view, a strong positive.

Thanks for the good wishes. I hope you’re enjoying the summer as well.

Question: What happened to your Golden Retriever?

Answer: Thank you for asking. He had an obstruction in his small intestine that led to the organ becoming 90 percent necrotic. We had to put him down.

Question: What are your three best stocks today for growth with income?

Answer: I like Apple Inc (NSDQ: AAPL) for growth plus income as well as NextEra Energy Inc (NYSE: NEE) and ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF).

Question: Please share your thoughts on Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF) and Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX: CPG, OTC: CSCTF) regarding the recent run-up (especially in energy) in stock prices and future investment in both companies. Thank you.

Answer: I continue to rate Crescent Point a buy up to USD48. I’m thrilled with the run the stock has made, even more so by the company’s ability to grow production per share on a consistent basis.

Parkland’s rebound looks like it’s tiring out a bit. But the business is in good shape, and management has been able to grow the business by making acretive deals for smaller fuel distribution companies. Earnings are visible and the dividend is stable.

Question: Hello again David! Do you think APA Group (ASX: APA, OTC: APAJF) is a good enough stock to benefit from “the floating pipeline” in Australia? Appreciate your chat.

Answer: I like APA because it’s the dominant nat! ural gas ! infrastructure company in Australia, offering visible earnings, cash flow and dividend growth. I’m not sure yet of any specific benefits it will realize through the potential construction of the proposed Woodside Petroleum Ltd (ASX: WPL OTC: WOPEF, ADR: WOPEY)/Royal Dutch Shell Plc (London: RDSA, NYSE: RDS/A) floating LNG project at this stage.

Question: Hi. What do you think about Williams Companies (NYSE: WMB) and ONEOK Inc (NYSE: OKE)? They both seem to be increasing their dividends.

Answer: Williams just completed a big deal for Access Midstream Partners LP that will add to cash flow and provide more room for dividend growth. Part of the deal in fact includes a 32 percent payout increase. This is a classic invest-to-grow story. I like Williams under 60.

ONEOK is now a pure-play general partner, its asset being a 41 percent interest in ONEOK Partners LP (NYSE: OKS) and its gathering/processing/transporting assets from key US gas-producing fields. Management has guided to solid dividend growth for the next half-decade. I like ONEOK on dips to 66.

Question: Dave, any thoughts on NextEra Energy Partners LP (NYSE: NEP)? And, if you can build on that, maybe talk about how to approach an initial public offering (IPO) in general. Thanks.

Answer: I like that NextEra Energy Partners' 10 renewable generation projects are operating under long-term power purchase agreements, which provides a high level of cash-flow certainty.

IPOs are tough for regular retail investors who don’t have very large accounts with brokerages participating in the underwriting process. I'd wait to see if management’s forecasts for financial and operating performance bear out and for the share price to settle a bit and for the "yieldco" spinout from NextEra Energy Inc to establish a bit of trading history.

Question: What are your newest, best conservative stocks?

Answer: I like Northeast Utilities (NYSE: NU), Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, N! YSE: BEP)! , Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, NYSE: PBA), Xcel Energy Inc (NYSE: XEL) and NiSource Inc (NYSE: NI).

Question: What is your current analysis on Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc (TSX: BRE, OTC: BREUF) and Liquor Stores NA Ltd (TSX: LIQ, OTC: LQSIF)?

Answer: Liquor Stores’ first-quarter payout ratio was negative, which raises some questions about dividend safety as we await second-quarter numbers, as overall sales growth was tepid and same-store sales actually declined.

Margin shrank as the company’s turnaround plan led to higher costs. This is an aggressive play on management’s ability to execute in a tough operating environment, with particular pressure in its US operations in Kentucky. I still rate it a buy under USD14, but it’s for aggressive investors.

Brookfield Real Estate Services is a simple story with continuing support from a still-strong, still-stable Canadian housing market. There’s not a lot of upside to be had because of the way its business is structured. But the dividend is consistent and supported by cash flow.

Question: In today’s crazy market, what five socks would you pick for growth that would have downside protection?

Answer: Based on your parameters I would pick TransCanada Corp (TSX: TRP, NYSE: TRP), Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE: VZ), NextEra Energy Inc, ONEOK Inc  and Chevron Corp (NYSE: CVX).

Question: I own Pembina Pipeline, Parkland Fuel, Enerplus Corp (TSX: ERF, NYSE: ERF), Crescent Point and Baytex Energy Corp (TSX: BTE, NYSE: BTE). All of the securities are in one of your CE Portfolio Conservative or Aggressive holdings except Baytex.

Do you feel there are better plays in the energy patch besides Baytex, which I've owned since late 2008?

Answer: Baytex has done extremely well over the past few months as a stock, and management recently boosted the dividend by 9.1 percent. I rate it a buy under 46, so it’s not as if I don’t like it.

We have six oil and! gas prod! ucers in the CE Portfolio, five of which have been consistent performers, with the sixth in the midst of what appears thus far to be a promising turnaround.
But Baytex’ “omission” from the Portfolio should not be viewed in a negative light.

Question: What is your projection on natural gas prices?

Answer: Production in the US will continue to grow, while demand should rise with the EPA’s new rule on GHG emissions that will encourage the switch to cleaner-burning fuels from coal-fired power. Exports of gas via LNG terminals will also have an impact.

I don’t see gas going back to the $2 neighborhood we saw in 2012. Nor do I see it hitting double digits anytime soon. Weather will impact prices on a seasonal basis, but regular trading zone between $3.50 and $4.50 for the next couple years seems reasonable.

But please don’t quote me on that. There are a lot of variables in play.

Question: Your thoughts on Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF)?

Answer: I think Keyera is a great company, with great gas and NGLs midstream assets and a solid record of execution. And it has one of the best-looking five-year stock charts you’ll ever see.

Consistent dividend growth is supported by fee-for-service assets. It's a tremendous long-term holding.

Question: Chevron or Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE: XOM)? Or both?

I guess I’d like to know which company’s LNG prospects impress you more. I was reading an article about Chevorn's Gorgon project in particular; they’ve spent tons of dough on capital expenditures.

Answer: Chevron was the June 2014 Growth Spotlight in Utility Forecaster, which means it was my top “growth” pick for new money right then.

LNG projects in general are notorious for cost blowouts, so the Gorgon situation is not unusual. We should start to see meaningful production growth in the second half of 2014 and into 2015 from its LNG projects and its unconventional US plays.!

! Exxon Mobil also offers compelling long-term growth prospects. I’m excited by the PNG LNG project, which it operates and which has actually been one of the anomalies: cost blowouts have been relatively modest, and production targets have been exceeded. It’s not a Portfolio Holding, but I do rate Exxon Mobil a buy under 107.

Question: Are there plans for NextEra Energy Partners to pay a dividend? If so, when, and how much will it pay?

Answer: NextEra Energy Partners expects to pay a quarterly dividend of $0.1875 per share, which is $0.75 annualized and about a 2.2 percent yield based on the current share price of $34.77 (as of July 2, 2014). NextEnera Energy will retain an 83 percent stake in the offshoot. I don’t have information about ex-dividend, record or pay dates yet.

Question: Is this a good entry point for BHP Billiton Ltd (ASX: BHP, NYSE: BHP), and do you like the mining/iron ore prospects in the next year or two?

Answer: I rate BHP Billiton a buy under USD40 on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) and under USD80 on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). (The NYSE listing is an American Depositary Receipt that represents two ASX-listed shares.)

Iron ore is going to be tough for small producers without sufficient scale to offset the steep price decline for the steel input. BHP does have scale and one of the lowest-cost operations in the world.

Management has been cutting costs aggressively, scaling back expansion projects and otherwise trimming its sales in the aftermath of an aggressive expansion during the resource boom led by now-departed management.

Question: What are your thoughts on Exelon Corp's (NYSE: EXC) buyout of Pepco Holdings Inc (NYSE: PHI)?

Answer: It’s going to expand Exelon’s regulated operations, which is a good thing. And Pepco Holdings has been executing on a turnaround plan, with regulatory relations much improved.

It’ll be interesting to see whether nuclear can make a comeback ami! d the EPA! ’s new GHG rules for existing plants. It’s not clear yet whether this will transpire.

But the addition of geographically similar regulated utility operations is a definite positive. And the 2014 rebound for wholesale power prices is good too. It remains to be seen whether this is a durable trend or a weather-influenced phenomenon.

Question: David, are you impressed with Linn Energy LLC (NSDQ: LINE) and its progress since the Barron’s crash?

Answer: Yes. Management has taken steps to address a questionable production growth profile. And the unit price has clearly rebounded well.

I exited because of the uncertainty surrounding the Berry Petroleum acquisition and the potential drag of an SEC investigation.

There are other producers that pay solid dividends that I still like more, Enerplus, for example, that involve far less volatility.

Question: What about Enerplus? I owned it a few years ago and then sold when it lost steam. Do you think it has a way to go? Thanks.

Answer: Enerplus is a textbook example of management making the most of an unfortunate dividend cut, putting the savings to work to make the operation more efficient and getting back to production growth.

The stock price has been on a great run since mid/late 2012. And the production growth profile suggests good things ahead.

Question: Any thoughts on Covanta Holding Corp (NYSE CVA)? It's not a utility, but its business is utility-like.

Answer: I like Covanta, which, as you note, does a lot of utility-like things, including waste disposal and waste-to-energy. Management recently announced a healthy 39 percent dividend increase and is cutting costs as well. I rate it a buy under 22.

Question: David, any takeaway regarding Duke Energy Corp's (NYSE: DUK) 1.9 percent dividend? It seems tepid to me.

Answer: The magnitude of the increase is basically in line with the 1.96 percent increase announced around this time a year ago.

We’re still awaitin! g word on! what Duke’s ultimate liability will be for the coal-ash spill on the Dan River. But I don’t read too much into this increase. Consistent is better than big, I think.

Now, we’ll see what second-quarter results say about the underlying business, but this increase is generally in keeping with the recent trend.

Question: I notice that you have ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) as a "4" under the UF Safety Rating System with "hold" advice. Could you elaborate? Thanks.

Answer: As far as the majors that we follow go, including Chevon and Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips is trading at a steeper valuation right now after a parabolic run since early February.

At the same time, management’s target of 3 percent to 5 percent annual production growth to 2017 is well supported by US liquids, Asia-Pacific LNG and Canadian oil sands projects.

Question: Hi David, so sorry to hear about your dog. I know how hard that is. And thank you for taking the time to host this chat.

I hold positions in Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR-U, OTC: CDPYF); Dream Office REIT (TSX: D-U, OTC: DRETF); RioCan REIT (TSX: REI-U, OTC: RIOCF); and Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF). I’m a little concerned about Dream Office, as it's seen a significant decline in value.

What's your forecast for Canadian REITS going forward? Also, can you please comment on my old nemesis Penn West Petroleum Ltd (TSX: PWT, NYSE: PWE)? I’ve held this tock for a long time; it's seen a nice run-up recently. Where do you think it might go from here? Thanks.

Answer: Thank you.

The July In Focus feature for Canadian Edge will be devoted to Canadian REITs, including Dream Office, the new name for Dundee REIT.

The unit price has settled into a range following the steep slide last spring/summer. And first-quarter numbers were decent. But other Canadian REITs, including Canadian Apartment Properties and Artis, have clearly responded much better. I’ll have mor! e next Fr! iday, July 11, when the July CE is published.

Penn West management is getting good results so far in its turnaround plan. Production was down in the first quarter, but so were costs. And the share price has been on a solid uptrend since late January 2014. Second-quarter numbers, which will be released on or about Aug. 8, will of course be critical.

Question: I like the H2O business. I've owned American Water Works Co Inc (NYSE: AWK) for eons. Is there any compelling reason to own more than one water utility? At what point does is there no marginal benefit added? I do like Connecticut Water Service Inc (NSDQ: CTWS) and York Water Co (NSDQ: YORW) as slow, consistent growers.

As Ben Franklin said, "Little strokes fell great oaks."

Answer: We do have three in the UF Portfolio, including American Water Works, Connecticut Water Service and Aqua America Inc (NYSE: WTR), with the basic rationale rooted in geographic diversification.

Question: What's your outlook for Alliant Energy Corp (NYSE: LNT)?

Answer: I rate Alliant Energy a buy under 57. It’s pushed out a little beyond that right now.

The Midwest service territory is holding up well economically, and regulatory relations are solid. It benefitted, like a lot of utilities, from an abnormally cold weather. Longer-term growth is supported by infrastructure investment.

Dividend growth forecasts from management do exceed the industry average.

Question: Your latest thoughts on Lightstream Resources Ltd (TSX: LTS, OTC: LSTMF)?

Answer: Lightstream has backed off a 12-month high in recent days, as oil prices have retreated along with easing tensions in Iraq. But management continues to make progress in its plan to sell non-core assets to generate funds to pay down debt.

Still at issue is whether it can maintain sufficient production to support the dividend rate while selling assets. But first-quarter results were basically encouraging. Management will report second-quarter results on ! or about ! Aug. 7.

I continue to rate it a buy under USD8. It’s about USD7.64 as of this writing (midday July 9, 2014).

Question: What's your forward-looking opinion of Canadian railroads considering they've had a good run up already this year?

Answer: Both Canadian National Railway Co (TSX: CNR, NYSE: CNI) and Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd (TSX: CP, NYSE: CP) have shown solid volume trends in recent weeks. I think there’s more upside from here, though, I do rate them “holds.”

Question: The market is hitting is hitting new highs and seems somewhat frothy. What's your perspective on rest of 2014?

Answer: I focus almost exclusively on buy-under targets for individual companies. We have had a nice run, and different valuation metrics and/or market forecasters will tell you different things about whether we’re overbought and heading for correction/crash.

I find a lot of these discussions, which tend to focus on single variables amid a system with incalculable inputs, to be overly simplistic. My primary concern right now is how second-quarter financial and operating numbers look for Portfolio and coverage universe companies.
Generally speaking, however, market history shows that new highs are a good thing.

Question: What are the differences among Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc (TSX: ENF, OTC: EBGUF), Enbridge Energy Partners LP (NYSE: EEP), Enbridge Inc (TSX: ENB, NYSE: ENB) and Enbridge Energy Management LLC (NYSE: EEQ)?

Which one has less US reliance? And which two will be helped the most by the Northern Gateway pipeline? Thanks, and sorry about your dog…that's a hard thing.

Answer: Enbridge Income Fund Holdings is focused entirely on Canadian assets. Enbridge Energy Partners has some Canadian exposure.

Enbridge Inc has extensive operations on both sides of the border and around the world. And right now it's is the only one that has equity interest in the Northern Gateway pipeline.
And thanks. It is. He w! ould be s! itting right under me right now. And he would have been six years old tomorrow.

Question: Your latest thoughts on Medical Facilities Corp (TSX: DR, OTC: MFCSF)?

Answer: Medical Facilities had a soft first quarter, with revenue flat and income down double digits. But its surgical centers are located in decent areas from an economic perspective. And an uptick in insurance coverage should help support demand over the long term.

I like it under USD14, though it’s trading well above that level right now. Second-quarter numbers will be out sometime in mid-August.

Question: What are your five favorite stocks in Canada for growth with a reliably growing dividend?

Answer: I like Vermilion Energy Inc (TSX: VET, NYSE: VET), Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX: BNS, NYSE: BNS), Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, NYSE: BEP), Pembina Pipeline and AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF).

Question: If I’m relying on dividends for income, does it make sense to sell some or all shares because the price went up 50 percent, Buckeye Partners LP (NYSE: BPL) for example?

Answer: I think you’re on the right track. If a stock has appreciated to the point that it accounts for an excessive portion of your total assets it may make sense to take some profit and reallocate.

Question: Thanks for these excellent web chats. What are your two or three "franchise" equities in your portfolios for the next three-plus years?

Answer: NextEra Energy Inc, Verizon Communications and Northeast Utilities are three solid building blocks for anyone, anywhere, anytime.

And thanks for the compliment.

Question: Hi, Dave. Thanks for the chat! Are you still positive on Consolidated Water Co Ltd's (NSDQ: CWCO) and Verizon's long, long term prospects?

Answer: I'm very bullish on Verizon, as the consolidation of Verizon Wireless ownership is a big, smart deal that requires little integration costs and exposes it to still-exploding data demand from wirele! ss device! users.

I like the Consolidated Water story more than I like recent results. But water is precious. And finding new ways to produce it is a good business for the next several decades. Its project in Rosarito, Mexico, should provide an earnings boost.

Question: Finally, and then I have to go–thanks for doing this, by the way. What's the most exciting technological change underway in energy today?

The environmental lobby targets fracking and oil sands. If you were to sit down with, say, a 21 year-old, well-intentioned/change the world/placard-carrying college student and talk about fracking and oil sands, what would you say to that person to change his attitude towards both fracking and oil sands? Thanks.

Answer: I think rooftop solar and distributed energy is a potentially game-changing development that will unfold over decades, like the wireless revolution in telecom.

I would tell your young idealist, as I’ve told the chief of staff to Senator Tim Kaine, that the vast majority of GHG emissions still come at the end-use stage versus the production stage, that natural gas production is a key element of meeting the new EPA target and we won’t get there without fracking, and that raising energy costs invariably and disproportionately hurt the poor and less-well-off.

It’s my pleasure, thanks for being here.

Question: David, where do you go for your research? Care to share your information hubs? Do you have an opinion on the Seeking Alpha website?

Answer: I read a lot of 10-Ks and 10-Qs and equivalent filings from Canadian and Australian companies, conference call transcripts and a handful of brokerage research reports. It’s basically from-the-source reading.

I also read a lot of official stuff from the Fed, the Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of Australia and other government and quasi-government agencies such as the IMF, the World Bank, the OECD, Statistics Canada, the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Energy I! nformatio! n Administration.

Question: What's your medium- and long-term outlook for El Paso Pipeline Partners LP (NYSE: EPB), Energy Transfer Partners LP (NYSE: ETP) and Spectra Energy Partners LP (NYSE: SEP)? If you had to choose one for the long term, which one would it be?

Answer: Just one? Energy Transfer Partners, although Spectra Energy Partners does benefit from its parent Spectra Energy Corp's (NYSE: SE) aggressive dropdown program and will see its asset base grow substantially in coming years.

El Paso Pipeline Partners fell out of favor in early 2014 due to underwhelming distribution growth guidance from management. But growth should resume in 2015.

Question: In the July Utility Forecaster both NRG Energy Inc (NYSE: NRG) and AES Corp (NYSE: AES) receive a good discussion of why their numbers have been low, and yet the underlying themes for both appear have good outlooks going forward.

Although I think I understand the information provided in the article, I don't understand why either would merit consideration for purchasing by an income driven investor, particularly since the dividends are low for utilities.

Rather, both companies look as if they might be good investments if purchasing for capital gains, rather than ongoing income.

Would you be able to explain why they make the “Aggressive Holdings” list? Thanks in advance.

Answer: I think your comment captures why we hold them in the Growth Portfolio Aggressive Holdings. UF is first and foremost an income-oriented publication. But I believe there’s room for recommendations across what is definitely a more limited risk spectrum within that context.

Growth Portfolio Aggressive Holdings are “growth-with-income” stories with some exposure to the economic cycle. Core Holdings are income-with-growth.

The Income Portfolio Conservative Holdings provide fixed income for the most risk-averse. The Income Aggressive Holdings have substantial income supported by regu! lated or ! fee-based revenue, high cash-flow visibility.

Question: Any near-term plans to raise the buy point on Spectra Energy Partners? It's been well above 45 for quite some time. I really like the stock, and I'm itching to buy but do not want to exceed your target.

Answer: Increases to buy-under targets are generally made based on dividend growth or asset growth. We will be taking time in coming weeks to evaluate where we are with the entire coverage universe.

I don’t mean to indicate that we will raise it, as the stock has been on a rocket ride since late 2012. We want to be sure that assets and cash flow support the valuation.

Question: Do you see continued upside for Magellan Midstream Partners LP (NYSE: MMP)?

Answer: I like Magellan Midstream's crude oil exposure, and I love that the GP takes no incentive distribution rights, meaning LP unitholders receive 100 percent of distributable cash flow.

Yes on the fundamentals, yes on unitholder friendly, cautious from a valuation perspective at these levels. I have it rated a buy under 76 right now.

Question: How do you rate AT&T Inc (NYSE: T) compared to Verizon?

Answer: I'm actually a satisfied AT&T wireless subscriber, with five devices across the family connected. I think the DirecTV (NYSE: DTV) deal will provide a boost to growth.

I think it and Verizon will continue to dominate the US market. I like the yield and the consistent divided growth. I rate AT&T a buy under 35.

I do like Verizon’s “big deal” to consolidate Verizon Wireless ownership versus AT&T’s move for DirecTV.

I don’t think, from a portfolio perspective, that they’re mutually exclusive.

Question: What are your thoughts on Energy Transfer Equity LP (NYSE: ETE) and Energy Transfer Partners?

Answer: Great set of fee-generating assets, great growth profile supported by new large-scale pipeline projects.

If I have a preference it’s for Ene! rgy Trans! fer Partners' 6 percent-plus yield versus Energy Transfer Equity's 2.5 percent.

Question: David, just one more question. What's your outlook for Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT)? It seems to be rebounding a bit. Thanks.

Answer: I think Atlantic Power is rebounding because management is evaluating strategic alternatives that could include asset sales or perhaps an outright takeover by a larger, better-capitalized company. The latter is the best outcome, in my view.

Question: What stocks and/or mutual funds would you hold indefinitely for dividend growth and capital appreciation?

Answer: When I add a stock to an AE, CE or UF Portfolio it’s with the intention of buying and holding indefinitely. So any Holding that’s buy-rated and trading below its buy-under target qualifies.

Question: No other questions, but I just want to say sorry about your dog. Hope you will get a new companion soon.

Answer: Thank you. We’re actually going to visit a farm where they breed Goldens tomorrow, which would have been Lemo’s sixth birthday. We’re not bringing a puppy home, but we will begin the process of filling the void.

Thanks, folks, for another great chat. And I appreciate all the thoughts on my dog.

We'll do it again on on Wednesday, July 30, 2014, at 2 pm ET, from the comfort of my deck overlooking the dune that separates, for one week a year, from the Atlantic Ocean.

Monday, July 7, 2014

Now Is the Perfect Time to Buy Refining Stocks

Twitter Logo Google Plus Logo RSS Logo Aaron Levitt Popular Posts: 5 Oil Services Stocks to Play Rising SpendingBe Wary of These 3 New MLP ETFs3 Healthcare Stocks for Retirement Investors Recent Posts: Now Is the Perfect Time to Buy Refining Stocks Is the Sun Fading on ETFs? – Morning Linkfest (July 7) Happy Birthday, 'Murica … And New Stocks – Morning Linkfest (July 3) View All Posts Now Is the Perfect Time to Buy Refining Stocks

Sometimes, markets overreact to news.

oil barrels Now Is the Perfect Time to Buy Refining Stocks

In this case, we're talking about the recent landmark decision by the Obama administration to begin the early stages of exporting our crude oil bounty overseas.

The news was heralded by various energy firms — especially those in the Bakken and Eagle Ford producing regions of country. After all, those exports should help West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarked crude increase in price and trade closer to international benchmark Brent. That means some hefty profits for those firms drilling within our borders.

Sadly, that's not necessarily a great thing if you operate a refiner and use WTI as a cheap feedstock for your gasoline, jet fuel and other products. As such, shares of leading refining stocks like Valero (VLO) and Marathon (MPC) fell hard on the news.

Perhaps too hard.

For investors looking for a beaten-down value in the energy sector, downstream players could be one of the best bets at current fire-sale prices.

Exporting Condensate

Last week, the Obama Administration and the Commerce Department paved the way for U.S. oil exports. In a landmark decision, government officials gave Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) the go-ahead to begin exporting a type of light oil known as condensate. The byproduct of natural gas drilling, condensate is considered a type of oil and is actually a mixture of various hydrocarbons, including everything from more traditional natural gas liquids (NGLs) to ingredients resembling gasoline or "drip gas." A big and growing use is mixing it will heavy oil sands-style oil in order for it to be shipped through pipelines.

That makes it a very useful and profitable product for energy firms. And we're producing a ton of it now, thanks in part to fracking.

The key for PXD and partner Enterprise Product Partners (EPD) is that, according to the Commence Department, condensate fits the bill as a "refined" product for export. That's because it needs to go through a series of stabilizers during the gathering process in order to be used. Even though that process is really just one or two steps, it still makes condensate a "refined" product and eligible for export under current rules.

Several analysts has postulated that this is just the first step to lifting the 40-year ban on exporting straight crude oil exports. And that's bad news if you rely on cheap mid-continent crude as your main profit driver. So it's no wonder why shares of the refining stocks plunged on the news. VLO dipped 8.3%, MPC dropped 6.3% and PBF Energy (PBF) plunged by 11%.

A Big Overreaction in Refining Stocks

The concern is rightfully there. After all, the sheer glut of crude oil here in America is allowing refining stocks to realize insane profits on their crack spread margins. So some drop is certainly warranted. But an 8%-plus plunge? I'm not so sure.

Here’s why that’s unwarranted …

First, this is condensate we are talking about. No one ever said anything about raw crude oil. In fact, the Commerce Department basically stated that there had been “no change in policy” toward crude oil exports. Exporting crude oil has become this year's hot-button issue, and the debate around it resembles the vitriol surrounding TransCanada's (TRP) Keystone XL pipeline. That pipeline is still bogged down in regulatory muck. I suspect that raw crude oil exports will mostly face the same fate.

Those exports — if they happen at all — will most likely resemble what is going on in the natural gas and LNG sectors. Controlled facility approvals, export quotas and the like are the norm for the LNG producers. Only a slight handful of facilities have been given the green light to begin exporting to nations with trade agreements with the U.S. (and those that do not share such deals are even fewer in number).

In the meantime, we're still producing ton of crude oil that remains locked within the United States borders. The WTI/Brent spread should remain favorable for quite a while. Nothing about the current condensate export deal will crimp margins or profits today for the refining stocks. In fact, they might actually get bigger.

As we said before, one of the main uses for condensate is thinning out heavy oil, like the kind Canada is blessed with. West Canadian Select (WSC) crude oil trades for even cheaper prices that WTI or Brent. I'm sure the refiners would love to get their hands on more of this cheap oil. Sending condensate upwards would make that possible.

Let's not forget that many of the refiners are now becoming petrochemical powerhouses that have been getting into processing some of these light oils/NGLs. Add in the fact that many of them own export terminals for gasoline that could easily add capacity for shipping condensate and you can see how the market has basically panicked over nothing.

Time To Buy Refiners

Essentially, the market is extrapolating a lot of "what if" from the recent decision to export condensate. For opportunistic investors, that provides plenty of chances for them to potentially add some of the top refiners to the portfolios on the cheap.

The drop in refining stocks has sent price-to-earnings ratios down to historic lows and dividend yields to new highs. Valero trades for a P/E of just 10 and with a 1.7% dividend yield, while Phillips 66 (PSX) and Western Refining (WNR) both trade at just 13 times earnings along with a 2.5% payout. All feature growing profits, vast product lines and MLP subsidiaries providing hefty tax-deferred payouts.

And those are just some of the candidates for inclusion. The bottom line is that market has overreacted to a bit of news that really has zero implications on today or the near future. Investors looking to shift through the noise are able to snag some deals in the downstream players.

As of this writing, Aaron Levitt was long MPC.

Sunday, July 6, 2014

5 Stocks to Buy for July

Twitter Logo LinkedIn Logo Google Plus Logo RSS Logo Dan Burrows Popular Posts: 5 Stocks to Sell for JulyThe Internet of Things — 9 Stocks to Buy (At Your Own Peril)Mergers and Acquisitions — The 5 Biggest Deals of Q2 Recent Posts: 5 Stocks to Buy for July Nathan’s Famous – Stick to Nathan’s Hot Dogs, Forget NATH Stock GM Stock Rallies as Shocking Sales Gain Trumps Recall News View All Posts 5 Stocks to Buy for July

If the market has another July like it did last year, finding stocks to buy for outperformance is going to really, really hard. Heck, the S&P 500 closed out July 2013 with a total return of nearly 5%.

Bull185 5 Stocks to Buy for JulyNo, we’re not likely to see a repeat of that torrid performance, but this still is a seasonally solid time for the market. From 1928 to 2014, the S&P 500 generated an average monthly price gain of 1.6%, according to updated data from Yardeni Research.

Finding stocks to buy for tactical outperformance is always challenging, but between last year’s great run and the historical monthly benchmark, well … the bar for July is pretty high.

If you have any hope of beating the market this month, you need to find stocks to buy with both strong technicals and superior seasonality. Price momentum and a long history of strong average monthly returns tilt the odds in your favor that these stocks to buy will lead the market higher.

After screening the S&P 500 for stocks showing everything from price strength to positive seasonality, we found a number of equities with compelling technicals. Based on these strengths, here are five stocks to buy for July:

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Stocks to Buy for July – American Tower (AMT)

070214 amt 300x165 5 Stocks to Buy for July
Click to Enlarge American Tower (AMT) — the real estate investment trust (REIT) known for never standing still — bought another $1 billion in wireless communications towers in Brazil last month, and the market loves the aggressive growth strategy.

On July 1, AMT stock closed just 1% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low. That has American Tower shares trading 1.9% above their 50-day moving average, and 9.7% above their 200-day MA.

The upside price momentum extends to AMT’s relative strength indicator, which last stood at 59. That suggests healthy demand for shares, without being overbought.

Seasonality also bodes well for AMT stock in July and beyond. Based on 10 years of data tracked by Thomson Reuters Stock Reports, AMT returns an average of 2.3% in July.

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Stocks to Buy for July – Norfolk Southern (NSC)

070214 nsc 300x163 5 Stocks to Buy for July
Click to Enlarge Railroad operator Norfolk Southern (NSC) is chugging into the second half of the year with a head of technical strength. Shares are already up 11% for the year-to-date, but the big gains have yet to come.

NSC stock closed the July session sitting just 2% below its 52-week high — and 43% above its 52-week low. That has NSC shares trading 3.7% above their 50-day moving average and 12% above their 200-day MA.

With a relative strength indicator of 57, NSC stock has plenty of price momentum behind it. Indeed, it has climbed into overbought territory three times since May and always enjoyed fresh demand after brief and shallow cooling-off periods.

Lastly, NSC stock is entering an outstanding period for seasonality. Over the last decade, NSC stock generated an average monthly return of 4.8%, according to Thomson Reuters Stock Reports.

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Stocks to Buy for July – Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS)

070214 dps 1 300x167 5 Stocks to Buy for July
Click to Enlarge Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS) is having an outstanding year — shares in the beverage company are up 21% — and the technicals still say DPS stock is a screaming buy.

As of July 1, DPS stock was a just a couple of percentage points shy of taking out its 52-week high. DPS stock is also a buoyant 37% above its 52-week low.

That has DPS stock sitting a solid 3% above its 50-day moving average and 16% above its 200-day moving average. Indeed, Dr Pepper’s technicals make shares look like they’re full of fizzy lifting drink.

The upside price momentum can also be seen in the DPS stock relative strength indicator, which, at 57, shows heavy buying interest without being overbought.

Perhaps best of all, DPS stock is set to enter a three-month period of historically strong seasonality. Over the last decade, DPS stock returned an average of 1.2% in July, 3.4% in August and 2% in September, according to Thomson Reuters data.

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Stocks to Buy for July – Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)

070214 hpq 300x164 5 Stocks to Buy for July
Click to Enlarge Once a bad joke, tech company Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) has worked out enough bugs to be having a tremendous year. HPQ stock is up 22% for the year-to-date and the technicals say July will bring even more gains.

HPQ stock closed the July 1 session within 3 percentage points of its 52-week high — and a whopping 69% above its 52-week low. That put HPQ stock a good 3% above its 50-day moving average and 17% above its 200-day moving average.

The run also has HPQ stock flashing a bullish relative strength indicator of 54. All signs point to solid upside price momentum.

That could help HPQ stock raise its July batting average. Over the last 10 years, HPQ stock has returned 1.5% in July, but the charts suggest it could top that this month.

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Stocks to Buy for July – Simon Property Group (SPG)

070214 spg 300x163 5 Stocks to Buy for July
Click to Enlarge Simon Property Group (SPG) is another REIT having a market-beating year — and given the technicals, more outperformance in July for SPG stock looks like a great bet.

SPG stock closed just 2% below its 52-week high on July 1, a level that left it a solid 25% above its 52-week low. Recent trading shows SPG stock comfortably finds support at its 50-day moving average (it’s currently trading 1.2% above that key level). SPG stock is also 10% above its 200-day MA.

With a relative strength indicator of 58, don’t be surprised if SPG stock takes out that 52-week high soon — and then keeps going. Between price momentum and seasonality, SPG stock is set for an excellent month.

Indeed, over the last decade, SPG stocks puts up an average return of 3.2% in July, according to data from Thomson Reuters Stock Reports. August and September are terrific, as well, with gains of 1.7% and 1.9%, respectively.

As of this writing, Dan Burrows did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.