Are You Too Emotional About Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)?

There is something about small cap chip maker Advanced Micro Devices, Inc (NYSE: AMD) that rightly or wrongly just brings out both the bulls and the bears. I should mention that we had an open position in Advanced Micro Devices in our SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity (SCN EO) portfolio from last summer up until late January when we locked in a small loss. We got out not because we have lost faith in AMD, but for sinking once again after its latest earnings report, something it had already done after three other earnings reports. But if you are not a trader and have a long term time horizon, holding the stock will probably bear some fruit and you should be considering the some of the following latest AMD news:  

Does Emotion Trump Reason for AMD Investors? AMD bear Richard Saintvilus has written another critical article about the stock for The Street, noting that:

"As I've said, this company has been in continuous recovery. It's time to ask: When will the ship finally dock?"

He went on to add that its "dangerous to assume" that AMD doesn't face significant pressure from the likes of Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) and NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) even if those companies are "shells of their former selves" because they've done moderately better than AMD in navigating the declining PC market. He also noted that while Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has partnered with Intel, there is no such "lifeline"  for AMD to the extent to "justify optimism" about the company's future. Moreover:

"I can't understand how AMD expects to emerge more competitive by not spending more in areas like research and development. Companies don't "save" their way to more revenue and market share. It costs money. The restructuring continues."

Is AMD Loosing Ground to Intel and Nvidia? According to market tracker Jon Peddie Research (JPR), GPU shipments increased in the fourth quarter of last year and during this three-month period, Advanced Micro Devices lost market share against rivals Intel and NVIDIA Corporation:

According to the numbers, AMD's overall units shipped dropped 10.4% while Intel's total shipments increased 5.1% from the third quarter and NVIDIA's increased by 3.4% compared to the third quarter of last year. With year-over-year numbers, AMD's market share slipped 5.4%, Intel's increased by 5.4% and NVIDIA's increased by 0.9%.

AMD Eyes New Growth Segments. Neil Spicer, who was recently promoted from senior sales manager for the EMEA component channel to head up the vendor's EMEA CPU business, has told Channelweb that the entry-level desktop PC market is on vendor's hit list as it predicts the start of the long-awaited upgrade cycle:

"We believe there is an upgrade cycle coming and these days everything is about compute power…It is unusual for a vendor to talk about costs. But there is an opportunity to build an entry-level PC from a starting point of around $70 [£42] with an APU and motherboard."

And he added:

"In 2012/13 we recognised 90 per cent of our revenue in the PC and client market, but by 2015, 50 per cent of the company's revenue will come from emerging growth segments such as consoles and we are moving to new designs in the tablet market…. The big thing for me is that the AMD you thought you knew is not the AMD we are today. We have been through the acceleration stage of our turnaround and are now in the transformation stage."

Share Performance. On Thursday, Advanced Micro Devices fell 0.81% to $3.69 for a market cap of $2.68 billion plus the stock is down 4.65% since the start of the year, up 36.2% over the past year and up 81.8% over the past five years:

Finally, here is a look at the latest technical chart for AMD:

Taking the above news in consideration, there is still plenty for both the bulls and the bears to contemplate.

SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity (SCN EO) has an open position in AMD. To find out what other open positions SCN EO currently has, and to learn why so many traders and investors are relying on this premium subscription service, click here to find out more.

NVIDIA Corporation Is Becoming a Share Buyback Behemoth

As recently as mid-2012, NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA  ) was faced with a falling stock price and a rising cash stockpile. At one point, NVIDIA's cash accounted for more than 40% of its total market cap! Meanwhile, the company's generous stock compensation meant that shareholders were enduring slow but steady dilution as the share count rose from less than 500 million in 2004 to more than 600 million by 2012.

NVDA Cash to Market Cap, data by YCharts

In other words, the time was right for a big stock buyback. This would return excess cash to investors and reverse years of shareholder dilution.

Finally, in November of 2012, the company gave in and announced an extension of its dormant share repurchase program and the initiation of a dividend. Since then, NVIDIA has become increasingly aggressive in returning cash to shareholders. Just a few weeks into its new fiscal year, the company has continued down that path by setting up another big share buyback.

The capital return program heats up
After announcing an extension of its share repurchase authorization in late 2012, NVIDIA gave investors more clarity on its intentions last April. At that time, the company announced plans to return $1 billion to shareholders in that fiscal year through dividends and share repurchases.

The bulk of this capital return program was completed through a $750 million accelerated share repurchase facilitated by Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS  ) . In total, NVIDIA returned $1.07 billion to shareholders last year, consisting of $181 million in dividends and $887 million used to repurchase 62 million shares.

Staying aggressive
Luckily for investors, NVIDIA did not decide to rest on its laurels after returning more than $1 billion last year. In November, the company announced that it would return an additional $1 billion to shareholders during the 2015 fiscal year, which began several weeks ago. This will include an increased dividend as well as continued share repurchases.

However, by that point, NVIDIA was starting to run short of domestic cash. Like many other tech companies -- most notably, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) -- NVIDIA keeps a large portion of its cash outside of the U.S. in order to avoid steep repatriation taxes.

NVIDIA quickly solved this problem in November by issuing $1.5 billion of convertible debt. This provided ample domestic cash for dividends and share repurchases. This week, NVIDIA will initiate a second accelerated share repurchase with Goldman Sachs, paying $500 million for more than 20 million shares. Barring a steep rise in NVIDIA's share price, Goldman Sachs will deliver additional shares to the company when the ASR settles in July.

Dilution reversed
NVIDIA's aggressive share repurchases have enabled it to quickly reverse much of the dilution that occurred between 2004 and 2012. The number of shares outstanding has dropped about 10% from the peak of about 625 million, and will continue to fall due to the company's 2015 share repurchase program.

NVDA Shares Outstanding data by YCharts

Based on the strong results NVIDIA reported last week, the company's buybacks appear to have been well-timed so far. If NVIDIA can maintain its momentum, shareholders will benefit from the combination of growing net income and a shrinking share count, which could drive a big increase in EPS. That could drive additional share price appreciation.

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No Parity for Solar as Congress Slumbers

 The joint monthly web chat for subscribers of The Energy Strategist (TES) and MLP Profits (MLPP) took place last week. The chat is conducted by Igor Greenwald, who is managing editor for TES and chief investment strategist for MLPP, and myself.  

There were six MLP questions remaining at the end of the chat that required an extended answer, or a bit more research. This week I will answer three: one on the MLP Parity Act, another on Regency Energy Partners (NYSE: RGP) and Suburban Propane Partners (NYSE: SPH), and finally one on Golar LNG Partners (Nasdaq: GMLP).

Next week's issue will tackle the three remaining questions: one on MLP equivalents in Canada and Australia, one on Enbridge Energy Partners (NYSE: EEP)  and TC Pipelines (NYSE: TCP), and a third query on Access Midstream Partners (NYSE: ACMP), Crestwood Midstream Partners (NYSE: CMLP) and Mid-Con Energy Partners (Nasdaq: MCEP).

For answers to some remaining energy sector questions from the chat, see this week's issue of The Energy Letter.

Q: Have you heard of any new prospects for Congress to allow solar (manufacturers/ installers etc) to obtain MLP status? That would be a nice help by providing the tax advantages of MLPs.

I covered this in some detail back in August in Gridlocked Congress No Threat to MLPs. Here is a quick review. The Master Limited Partnerships Parity Act (MLPPA) (S.795, H.R.1696) was sponsored by Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del) and US Rep. Ted Poe (R-Tex). The summary of the bill reads:

Master Limited Partnerships Parity Act – Amends the Internal Revenue Code, with respect to the tax treatment of publicly traded partnerships as corporations, to expand the definition of “qualifying income” for such partnerships to include income and gains from renewable and alternative fuels (in addition to fossil fuels), including energy derived from thermal resources, waste, renewable fuels and chemicals! , energy efficient buildings, gasification, and carbon capture in secure geological storage.

The bill seeks the same treatment for certain renewable energy projects as that given to fossil fuel companies. In principle, this is a great idea, but I have argued in the past that not all renewable energy projects would benefit from such a change. For example, MLPs tend to attract investors seeking steady income. Certain projects — advanced biofuel projects for example — are unlikely in my mind to provide it. Many of the advanced biofuel projects have shed 90 percent of their value over the past three years, and profitability isn't on the horizon. Such a company isn't going to attract the typical MLP investor.

Solar projects, however, may represent the exact type of project that could benefit from MLP status. A solar project with an attractive, long-term power purchase agreement (PPA) would be similar to a midstream MLP with long-term fee-based contracts. This is very different from a biofuel offtake agreement, since in many cases the biofuels aren't yet economically viable and hence can't benefit from an offtake deal structure. In the case of solar, the cost of production can be estimated, and it has continued to fall over the years. Thus solar, wind, geothermal, biomass combustion — all of the current commercially available renewable power production options — could benefit greatly from MLP status.

Unfortunately, a change in the tax status seems unlikely. This is amazing given that the bill has bipartisan support, and is favored by renewable energy companies and fossil fuel companies alike. But there are no hearings scheduled, and really nothing in the news about it. Nobody in Congress seems to be pushing it. The odds of passage of the MLP Parity Act in this Congress have been estimated to be only 1 percent.

Back in November the bill's lead sponsor, Sen. Coons, announced the co-sponsorship of senators Mary Landrieu (D-La) and Susan Collins (R-Maine).! They joi! n senators Jerry Moran (R-Kan), Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich), and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska). That is a powerful bipartisan group that should be able to get this bill passed. The chance of passage for the MLPPA would improve if enough people pick up the phone and call their representatives about it — especially if your representative happens to be one of those mentioned above.

Q: Would you comment on RGP and SPH?

Regency Energy Partners (NYSE: RGP) is engaged in the the gathering and processing, contract compression, contract treating, transportation, fractionation and storage of natural gas and natural gas liquids. Regency operates in the most prolific shale plays and rich gas formations in the US including the Haynesville, Eagle Ford, Barnett, Fayetteville, and Marcellus shales as well as the Permian Delaware basin.

RGP has been a long-term holding in the MLP Growth Portfolio, returning nearly 25 percent in 2013 while paying a dividend yield above 7 percent. The partnership has been on an acquisition spree lately. Less than three months after unveiling a $5.6 billion buyout of Appalachia-focused gatherer PVR Partners (NYSE: PVR), Regency announced that it would spend $1.3 billion on the midstream assets of Eagle Rock Energy Partners (Nasdaq: EROC), one of the MLP sector's biggest 2013 busts. RGP will also buy Hoover Energy Partners' midstream assets for $290 million.

The purchases expand Regency's footprint in the Texas panhandle, east and west Texas and are adjacent to Regency's own gathering systems, promising increased efficiencies of scale and other cost savings.

The purchases will be financed with debt and the issuance of Regency units worth nearly $700 million, roughly 13 percent of the current market capitalization, with general partner Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) buying $400 million.

However, at this point we have turned cautious on new purchases of RGP. Aside from the usual integration risks, debt leverage remains high and the new unit issua! nce to fi! nance the latest deal will disproportionately benefit Energy Transfer Equity via the latter's incentive distribution rights.

I discussed the propane distributors two weeks ago in Searching in Vain for Cheap Propane. Suburban Propane Partners (NYSE: SPH) markets and distributes propane, fuel oil and refined fuels, and also markets natural gas and electricity in deregulated markets. The partnership serves approximately 750,000 residential and commercial customers through some 300 locations in 30 states (primarily on the east and west coasts).

But because SPH is more involved in the retail end of propane instead of the production/logistical side, it has been significantly outperformed by NGL Energy Partners (NYSE: NGL) and Ferrellgas Partners (NYSE: FGP). In short, the latter two are the ways to play higher propane prices, whereas SPH will see much less benefit from higher-priced propane.

Q: Golar (GMLP) has been doing well lately after an up/down and eventually flat year in 2013.  While sometimes diverging TGP performed about the same. Thoughts on any catalyst this year that might help GMLP start to trend up consistently?

There was another question in the chat about Golar LNG Partners (Nasdaq: GMLP), and I think part of my answer is worth repeating. According to the National Association of Publicly Traded Partnerships, there are seven partnerships in the Marine Transportation category. Of those seven, five have a footnote that reads "Organized and headquartered outside the US. Although organized as a partnership, has elected to be taxed as a corporation in the US and will furnish 1099s rather than K-1s. Some income will be treated as a currently taxable dividend, some as return of capital."

Golar is one of those MLPs that has chosen to pay income taxes as a corporation. This avoids the hassle of dealing with K-1s in tax season, but it also gives up some of the tax advantages.

The two Marine Transportation MLPs that are taxed as MLPs are Dynagas LNG Partners (Nasd! aq: DLNG)! and Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP). The latter has 29 LNG carriers, and has already agreed to charter two of its ships to the first US LNG export venture. We actually favor TGP over GMLP.

Back to the initial question, the primary catalyst on the horizon that should benefit the liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers will be the upcoming completion of LNG export terminals. As Cheniere Energy Partners (NYSE: CQP) prepares to begin shipping LNG from its Sabine Pass LNG export terminal, and follows with another LNG terminal in Corpus Christi, Tex.,  investors should warm to LNG carriers as a significant investment opportunity. You may have to be a little patient as CQP's first terminal isn't scheduled to start shipping until late 2015 or early 2016. But there should be a lot of press coverage as project completion draws near.

Investors will then become more aware of the six applications for approval by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) — including two in Oregon (the only two US West Coast export terminals being considered). In total, 13 LNG export projects have been proposed to FERC, and another 11 sites identified by project sponsors.

The US Department of Energy (DOE) also has to approve the projects, and in addition to the six applications already approved by the DOE another two dozen are under review. Approving all would give the US a total export capacity of  35.6 billion cubic feet per day (equivalent to just over half the natural gas production in the US in 2012) — but certainly all of the projects under review will not be completed.

So if you are looking for a catalyst, I think that will be it. It will be general awareness of the huge opportunity as LNG shipments begin to take shape.

(Follow Robert Rapier on Twitter, LinkedIn, or Facebook.)

Buffalo Wild Wings Down 4% after Morgan Stanley's Downgrade

Thursday morning rating reports included Morgan Stanley's John Glass downgrading Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ: BWLD) from Overweight down to Underweight, lowering the price target from $144 to $143.

Morgan Staley notes, "We think BWLD's multiple expansion reflects more near term excitement about falling costs (specifically wings) and commensurately improving margins, important, but perhaps more temporary changes to the model that ignores the more enduring changes unfolding as unit growth begins to decelerate. Our work shows that unit growth is by far the more long lasting determinant of valuation."

BWLD closed Wednesday at $151.49 and currently trading down 4.3% to $145.

Posted-In: Downgrades Price Target Markets Analyst Ratings

(c) 2014 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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China's red hot phone market is cooling

HONG KONG (CNNMoney) After years of blockbuster growth, the world's biggest smartphone market is cooling.

Smartphone makers shipped 90.8 million units in China in the final three months of 2013, a 4% decline over the previous quarter, according to IDC.

It was the first quarterly decline since early 2011, and a sign that handset makers may have to look beyond the world's most populous country for growth.

The fall is even more remarkable as the quarter before Lunar New Year is usually strong as Chinese celebrate the holiday by picking up the latest models.

Chinese producers Xiaomi and Huawei performed well in the quarter, as did Apple. The worst of the decline was spread evenly among the rest of the pack.

"Companies have been looking at China like this big black hole that consumed all the phones you threw at it," said Melissa Chau, a senior research manager at IDC. "But that's not the case anymore."

The slowdown was helped along by a couple of factors. Suppliers held back phones as they waited for China's high-speed 4G network to come online. That happened in January, and should make for a rebound in the first quarter of this year.

And shipments could get another boost as Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) is now selling phones through China Mobile, the world's largest carrier with almost 800 million subscribers.

Related story: 5 ways to fix the Samsung Galaxy S

But short term hiccups aside, Chau said the decline coincides with lower expectations for the Chinese market. There won't be a dramatic fall in shipments, but growth will trend lower.

"This burning pace of doubling and tripling market growth is what we're expecting to slow down," she said. "We forget it's not going to last indefinitely."

  A personal trainer on your smartphone

Slower growth in China presents manufacturers with a major problem, mainly because there is no obvious way to replace those sales. Chau said that other emerging markets like India, Indonesia and Vietnam are a lot smaller.

"They are not going to immediately take up all the slack," she said.

Related story: Why Lenovo was hot for Motorola

The trend might drive consolidation in the industry as companies turn to acquisitions to pick up market share.

Already this year Lenovo (LNVGF) has plunked down $2.9 billion to buy Motorola Mobility from Google (GOOG, Fortune 500). That purchase will help Lenovo challenge Apple and Samsung.

Chau expects more deals to follow.

"It's the next phase," she said. "We are going to be hitting consolidation. It's who can get the best margins on the largest scale and the best distribution."

Gilead Sciences: Just How Good are Sovaldi’s Sales?

Very, very good, says Citigroup’s Yaron Werber and team, who expect Gilead Sciences (GILD) sales of Sovaldi to blow away expectations. They explain:

Bloomberg

[Gilead's] Sovaldi is tracking at $484M for the first nine weeks of launch and will post $5.74B in sales for 2014 and $1.21B for Q1:14 vs. Citi $516M and Consensus $368M, if Sovaldi scrips continue at same level as the recent week without any growth. We anticipate that Sovaldi will materially exceed our and consensus ests and believe that posting >$4B-$5B in total sales in FY14 is possible. In the ninth week of launch, Sovaldi's weekly TRx and NRx were 4,051 and 2,848 respectively. While this is only the ninth week, it is still much ahead of protease inhibitor Incivek' launch which had 1,365 TRx in the ninth week of launch.

Shares of Gilead Sciences has dropped 1.3% to $81.52 at 10:33 a.m., while Amgen (AMGN) has fallen 0.3% to $123.78, Biogen Idec (BIIB) has gained 0.8% to $331.07 and Celgene (CELG) has risen 1.1% to $166.59. The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) has advanced 0.6% to $153.43.

Danger Zone: Callidus Software (CALD)

Related CALD Benzinga's Top Initiations UPDATE: Credit Suisse Initiates Coverage on Callidus Software

 

Check out this week’s Danger Zone Interview with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life and MarketWatch.com.

Cloud software provider Callidus (NASDAQ: CALD) is in the Danger Zone this week. We’ve recently highlighted two other Software as a Service (SaaS) companies in Netsuite (NYSE: N) andSalesforce.com (NYSE: CRM), and CALD is a classic story of a bad company riding the coattail of the popularity of cloud computing and SaaS companies. SaaS stocks surged in 2013, and CALD followed the trend, gaining 166% over the past year.

Compared to its competitors, CALD has less scale, inferior profitability metrics, and fishy accounting to boot. The  stock’s valuation is so high that our DCF model can hardly make sense of it. The stock seems to be trading largely on the hopes of an acquisition.

Poor Profitability

CALD has never earned a profit, nor has it ever even come close. 2008 was its best year, when it earned over $100 million in revenue and had profit (NOPAT) margins of -11%. In terms of return on invested capital (ROIC), CALD’s best year was 2011, when it was -25%. In its most profitable year of operation, CALD lost 25 cents for every dollar invested.

CALD looks bad on a cash flow basis as well. The company has had negative free cash flow in five out of the past six years, and it has burned through roughly $75 million in the past two years. CALD has reported positive cash flows in 2013, but that’s due to the $17.5 million in deferred revenue at year-end, a fourfold increase from the year before.

CALD started 2013 with $67 million in adjusted total debt. It managed to reduce that debt by $31 million in 2013 by issuing another 4 million shares, further diluting its stock. The fact that CALD had to resort to issuing further shares to pay back its debt should concern investors. The positive cash flow from deferred revenues is only a short-term patch on what appears to be a very leaky business.

Fishy Accounting

CALD employs multiple accounting tricks to give the illusion of profitability.

Like many unprofitable companies, CALD likes to highlight its “non-GAAP” results, which exclude items like stock-based compensation, restructuring expense, and other non-cash or non-recurring expenses. While I am in support of using non-GAAP measures to analyze profitability (our NOPAT metric makes several adjustments to GAAP net income) investors should be very wary of non-GAAP measures provided by companies. Typically, when companies make up their own profit metrics, they tend to find ways to boost profitability.

CALD uses two main techniques to boost its “non-GAAP” earnings. The first, stock-based compensation, is a widespread practice, especially in the tech industry. While GAAP rules changed to require companies to include stock-based compensation expense in 2005, many companies like CALD continue to exclude stock-based compensation in non-GAAP results. Excluding stock-based compensation expense allowed CALD to boost non-GAAP income by $13.7 million (14% of revenue) in 2012 and $10.4 million (9% of revenue) in 2013. All these outstanding employee stock options constitute a $25 million (6% of market cap) liability for CALD.

The other, more unusual technique CALD employs involves restructuring expense. CALD has incurred restructuring expenses in each of the past seven years with an average expense of $1.6 million a year. According to its filings, CALD has been undergoing restructuring for more than half of its life as a publicly traded company. This typically ‘unusual’ charge for CALD has become usual. Perhaps, they like classifying expenses as “restructuring” because they exclude those costs from their “non-GAAP” income metric.

The surge in CALD’s stock price last year came in part from its return to “non-GAAP” profitability in 2013. CALD reported a “non-GAAP” profit of $1.8 million, most of which is made up of the $1.7 million in restructuring expenses that the “non-GAAP” metric excludes. CALD might classify these expenses as “non-recurring”, but their history suggests otherwise.

Competitive Position

While we’ve compared CALD’s profitability to CRM and N, it actually has set itself up to avoid direct competition with those firms as much as possible. Its Learning, Hiring, Marketing, and Selling clouds aim to fill in the gaps between the enterprise resource planning and customer relationship management solutions marketed by larger companies.

Unfortunately for CALD, it’s not the only company filing those gaps. Numerous small companies compete with CALD as does Oracle (NYSE: ORCL). In fact, ORCL is making a big push into the cloud software space and it seems to view CALD as a less formidable adversary than CRM or N.

Obviously, ORCL has a massive scale advantage over CALD. ORCL spent almost $5 billion on research and development in 2013 while CALD spent just $17 million. Of course ORCL is not spending its entire R&D budget on cloud products, but there’s no question it can outspend CALD by a huge amount.

We’re seeing a growing level of commoditization in the software industry, and CALD looks like a prime candidate to fall victim to this trend. As more firms try to occupy its niche, CALD will struggle to differentiate its product, and it should have real trouble competing with a firm like ORCL on price.

Valuation in the Clouds

CALD pulled back over 20% at the end of last week due to lower guidance, but it remains significantly overvalued. If we assume CALD can achieve profitability next year and reach 20% pre-tax margins by 2019 (same level as IBM), it would still have togrow revenue by 8% compounded annually for 25 years to justify its valuation of ~$11.50/share.

Both the margin assumptions and the revenue growth horizon seem overly optimistic to me. CALD faces too much competition going forward to assume 20% margins, while 25 years is too long of a growth appreciation period for a company in a rapidly changing industry like cloud software.

Figure 1 shows how CALD’s stock price and profitability have reached an unprecedented level of divergence recently.

Figure 1: Stock Price vs Economic Book Value (Zero Growth Value)

Sources:   New Constructs, LLC and company filings

Despite the 20% drop, CALD is still near its all-time high, while economic book value is near its all time low. There has never been a worse time to buy.

Insider Selling Signals a Top

The recent decline is not just a blip for CALD, it’s the start of a long-term downtrend. A look at the insider trading activity for CALD bears out this thesis. Over the past six months, insiders have sold over 200 thousand shares, about 12% of their holdings. Such a large amount of selling does not signal strong confidence in the company’s future.

Shorting a high momentum stock is always a dangerous proposition, but the recent reversal of momentum makes CALD an appealing short candidate. Any further slowdown in revenue growth or profitability, or success from competitors like ORCL, could send the stock tanking.

The only possibility for price appreciation at this point seems to be an acquisition. Rumors have been spreading that CALD could be an acquisition target, but no offers have been made as of yet. I don’t see any company wanting to give CALD much of a premium to its current valuation, but acquisitions are not always rational, so I can’t rule out the possibility. Still, the downside risk in this stock is much greater than the slim chance of a lucrative buyout.

CALD is a great example of the sector trap. When a high growth industry, like cloud computing, catches the market’s eye, the flood of investors sends all stocks higher, even those like CALD that can’t justify their valuations. Look for an even bigger drop in the future as the market value adjusts back to the reality of CALD’s fundamentals.

Sam McBride contributed to this report.

Disclosure: David Trainer and Sam McBride receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector, or theme.

The following article is from one of our external contributors. It does not represent the opinion of Benzinga and has not been edited.

Posted-In: Short Ideas Markets Trading Ideas

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Top Growth Stocks To Own For 2015

MEXICO CITY ��Taco stand owner Pompilio Jim茅nez held high hopes when Mexican President Enrique Pe帽a Nieto took office. But a year of slow sales and decreased security in his hometown on the outskirts of Mexico City has given him second thoughts.

"He promised more jobs and more security," says Jim茅nez, who recounts being robbed and receiving extortion calls demanding cash in recent months. "It's been completely the opposite."

Pe帽a Nieto arrived in office one year ago on Dec. 1, 2012, promising to calm the country and produce long-stalled structural reforms, which he said would allow Mexico to achieve 6% annual growth.

"This is Mexico's moment," he said in his inaugural address ��a line often repeated by boosters and analysts alike, summing up the sense of optimism for the Pe帽a Nieto as he attempted to turn the page on years of insecurity and subpar economic growth.

Top Growth Stocks To Own For 2015: Intuitive Surgical Inc.(ISRG)

Intuitive Surgical, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets da Vinci surgical systems for various surgical procedures, including urologic, gynecologic, cardiothoracic, general, and head and neck surgeries. Its da Vinci surgical system consists of a surgeon?s console or consoles, a patient-side cart, a 3-D vision system, and proprietary ?wristed? instruments. The company?s da Vinci surgical system translates the surgeon?s natural hand movements on instrument controls at the console into corresponding micro-movements of instruments positioned inside the patient through small puncture incisions, or ports. It also manufactures a range of EndoWrist instruments, which incorporate wrist joints for natural dexterity for various surgical procedures. Its EndoWrist instruments consist of forceps, scissors, electrocautery, scalpels, and other surgical tools. In addition, it sells various vision and accessory products for use in conjunction with the da Vinci Surgical System as surgical procedures are performed. The company?s accessory products include sterile drapes used to ensure a sterile field during surgery; vision products, such as replacement 3-D stereo endoscopes, camera heads, light guides, and other items. It markets its products through sales representatives in the United States, and through sales representatives and distributors in international markets. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By John Kell]

  Among the companies with shares expected to actively trade in Friday’s session are Intuitive Surgical Inc.(ISRG), Juniper Networks Inc.(JNPR) and Microsoft Corp.(MSFT)

• [By Anders Bylund]

  Plenty of companies operate behind a business moat, which makes it hard for competitors to steal their thunder. Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG  ) made its moat a mile wide, filled it with boiling acid, and populated it with mutant alligators.

• [By Rich Smith]

  While billed as a rival to America's Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG  ) , Mazor actually bears closer resemblance to tiny Hansen Medical (NASDAQ: HNSN  ) . Lacking profits despite raking in nearly $15 million in revenues last year, Mazor doesn't generate positive free cash flow like Intuitive does. Instead, it burns it like Hansen does (albeit more slowly). Last year, negative free cash flows amounted to $2.1 million, which suggests that Wallachbeth's endorsement may be a bit premature.

Top Growth Stocks To Own For 2015: CNO Financial Group Inc. (CNO)

CNO Financial Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the development, marketing, and administration of health insurance, annuity, individual life insurance, and other insurance products for senior and middle-income markets in the United States. The company markets and distributes Medicare supplement insurance, interest-sensitive and traditional life insurance, fixed annuities, and long-term care insurance products; Medicare advantage plans through a distribution arrangement with Humana Inc.; and Medicare Part D prescription drug plans through a distribution and reinsurance arrangement with Coventry Health Care. It also markets and distributes supplemental health, including specified disease, accident, and hospital indemnity insurance products; and life insurance to middle-income consumers at home and the worksite through independent marketing organizations and insurance agencies. In addition, the company markets primarily graded benefit and simplified issue life insurance products directly to customers through television advertising, direct mail, Internet, and telemarketing. It sells its products through career agents, independent producers, direct marketing, and sales managers. CNO Financial Group, Inc. has strategic alliances with Coventry and Humana. The company was formerly known as Conseco, Inc. and changed its name to CNO Financial Group, Inc. in May 2010. CNO Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Carmel, Indiana.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Jonas Elmerraji]

  Up first is CNO Financial Group (CNO), a mid-cap financial stock that's rocketed close to 60% higher since the calendar flipped over to January. Yup, it's been a great year for the market, but it's been a far better one for investors who own CNO. But that strong performance isn't showing any signs of slowing yet. In fact, CNO looks primed for even more upside in the fourth quarter.

  That's because CNO is currently forming a bullish pattern called an ascending triangle. The ascending triangle pattern is formed by a horizontal resistance level above shares -- in this case at $14.75 -- and uptrending support to the downside. Basically, as CNO bounces in between those two technical price levels, it's getting squeezed closer and closer to a breakout above that $14.75 resistance level. When that breakout happens, it's time to become a buyer.

  ACCO's price action isn't exactly textbook. After all, the pattern is coming in at the bottom of a downtrend, not after an uptrend. But ultimately, that doesn't change the trading implications of a move through that $7.50 level.

  Whenever you're looking at any technical price pattern, it's critical to think in terms of those buyers and sellers. Ascending triangles and other pattern names are a good quick way to explain what's going on in a stock, but they're not the reason it's tradable. Instead, it all comes down to supply and demand for shares.

  That $7.50 resistance level is a price where there has been an excess of supply of shares; in other words, it's a place where sellers have been more eager to step in and take gains than buyers have been to buy. That's what makes a breakout above it so significant. The move means that buyers are finally strong enough to absorb all of the excess supply above that price level.

  Don't be early on this trade.

• [By David Fried, Editor, The Buyback Letter]

  Insurance holding company CNO Financial Group (CNO) and its insurance subsidiaries��rincipally Bankers Life and Casualty Company, Washington National, and Colonial Penn Life Insurance Company��erve pre-retiree and retired Americans.

Top Growth Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Buffalo Wild Wings Inc.(BWLD)

Buffalo Wild Wings, Inc. engages in the ownership, operation, and franchise of restaurants in the United States. The company provides quick casual and casual dining services, as well as serves bottled beers, wines, and liquor. As of July 26, 2011, it had 773 Buffalo Wild Wings locations in 45 states in the United States, as well as in Canada. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Sean Williams]

  Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ: BWLD  )
  Just because consumers refuse to give up their ability to take a vacation doesn't mean they aren't looking for other creative ways to save a dollar. Unless you're staying with family, you don't have much choice when it comes to food -- you have to eat out. I'm going out on a limb and projecting that Buffalo Wild Wings will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of consumers who dine out this summer. If you've kept up with the company's rapid expansion, you'd notice that it's moving into warmer, hot-spot vacation destinations within the United States. In addition, it's been adding new menu items that are reasonably priced and won't break a family of four's bank. With BWW's big sports-bar appeal and NCAA sponsorship, getting traffic into its restaurants this summer shouldn't be difficult. As long as chicken prices cooperate, I expect a sizable upside surprise from BWW in the coming quarters.

• [By Brian Pacampara]

  Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, restaurant operator Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ: BWLD  ) has earned a respected four-star ranking. �

• [By Chris Hill]

  Bikinis Sports Bar & Grill has trademarked the term "breastaurant." Are restaurants like these a threat to "non-breastaurants" like Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ: BWLD  ) ? In this installment of MarketFoolery, our analysts discuss what it all means for investors.

Top Growth Stocks To Own For 2015: Sara Lee Corporation(SLE)

Sara Lee Corporation engages in the manufacture and marketing of a range of branded packaged meat, bakery, and beverage products worldwide. Its packaged meat products include hot dogs and corn dogs, breakfast sausages, sandwiches and bowls, smoked and dinner sausages, premium deli and luncheon meats, bacon, beef, turkey, and cooked ham. It also offers frozen baked products, which comprise frozen pies, cakes, cheesecakes, pastries, and other desserts. In addition, Sara Lee provides roast, ground, and liquid coffee; cappuccinos; lattes; and hot and iced teas, as well as refrigerated dough products. The company sells its products under Hillshire Farm, Ball Park, Jimmy Dean, Sara Lee, State Fair, Douwe Egberts, Senseo, Maison du Caf

Top Growth Stocks To Own For 2015: Thoratec Corporation(THOR)

Thoratec Corporation engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of proprietary medical devices used for circulatory support. The company?s primary product lines include ventricular assist devices, such as HeartMate II, an implantable left ventricular assist device consisting of a rotary blood pump to provide intermediate and long-term mechanical circulatory support (MCS); and HeartMate XVE, an implantable and pulsatile left ventricular assist device for intermediate and longer-term MCS. Its ventricular assist devices also comprise Paracorporeal Ventricular Assist Device, an external pulsatile ventricular assist device, which provides left, right, and biventricular MCS approved for bridge-to-transplantation (BTT), including home discharge, and post-cardiotomy myocardial recovery; and Implantable Ventricular Assist Device, an implantable and pulsatile ventricular assist device designed to provide left, right, and biventricular MCS approved for BTT comprising hom e discharge, and post-cardiotomy myocardial recovery. The company also provides CentriMag, an extracorporeal full-flow acute surgical support platform that offers support up to 30 days for cardiac and respiratory failure. In addition, it offers PediMag and PediVAS extracorporeal full-flow acute surgical support platforms designed to provide acute surgical support to pediatric patients. The company sells its products through direct sales force in the United States, as well as through a network of distributors internationally. Thoratec Corporation was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Pleasanton, California.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Todd Campbell]

  Competing for heart pump market share
  Abiomed's products provide circulatory support for up to six hours and are designed for use in cardiac cath labs or during heart surgery, but competitors Thoratec (NASDAQ: THOR  ) and Heartware (NASDAQ: HTWR  ) target the intermediate- and long-term-use market instead.

• [By Brian Pacampara]

  What: Shares of medical device company Thoratec (NASDAQ: THOR  ) sank 12% today after its quarterly results missed Wall Street expectations. �

Top Growth Stocks To Own For 2015: Checkpoint Systms Inc.(CKP)

Checkpoint Systems, Inc. manufactures and markets identification, tracking, security, and merchandising solutions for the retail and apparel industry worldwide. The company operates in three segments: Shrink Management Solutions, Apparel Labeling Solutions, and Retail Merchandising Solutions. The Shrink Management Solutions segment provides shrink management and merchandise visibility solutions. It offers electronic article surveillance systems, such as EVOLVE, a suite of RF and RFID-enabled products that act as a deterrent to prevent merchandise theft in retail stores; and electronic article surveillance consumables, including EAS-RF and EAS-EM labels that work in combination with EAS systems to reduce merchandise theft in retail stores. This segment also provides keepers, spider wraps, bottle security, and hard tags, as well as Showsafe, a line alarm system for protecting display merchandise. In addition, it offers physical and electronic store monitoring solutions, incl uding fire alarms, intrusion alarms, and digital video recording systems for retail environments; and RFID tags and labels. The Apparel Labeling Solutions segment provides apparel labeling solutions to apparel retailers, brand owners, and manufacturers. It has Web-enabled apparel labeling solutions platform and network of 28 service bureaus located in 22 countries that supplies customers with customized apparel tags and labels. The Retail Merchandising Solutions segment offers hand-held label applicators and tags, promotional displays, and queuing systems. The company serves retailers in the supermarket, drug store, hypermarket, and mass merchandiser markets through direct distribution and reseller channels. Checkpoint Systems was founded in 1969 and is based in Thorofare, New Jersey.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Rich Smith]

  Three months after settling upon a new chief executive officer, it looks like Thorofare, N. J.-based Checkpoint Systems (NYSE: CKP  ) will soon have itself a new CFO as well.

• [By John Udovich]

  Small cap Checkpoint Systems, Inc (NYSE: CKP) fights shoplifting or retail theft and other forms of�"shrink��that costs retailers over $112 billion worldwide last year (according to a study funded by the company), meaning it might be an interesting stock to take a closer look at and to compare its performance with that of SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA: XRT) and PowerShares Dynamic Retail ETF (NYSEARCA: PMR). Just how bad can shoplifting or shrink be for a retailer? Troubled retailer J.C. Penney Company, Inc (NYSE: JCP) has just reported that shoplifting took a full percentage point off the department store chain's profit margins during the quarter. Moreover and given that tens of millions of Americans are now facing higher health insurance costs thanks to Obamacare (which will likely impact consumer discretionary spending),�retailers�will need to find ways to shore up their margins and bottom lines by preventing�retail theft with solutions from company�� like Checkpoint Systems.

Top Growth Stocks To Own For 2015: TrueBlue Inc.(TBI)

TrueBlue, Inc. provides temporary blue-collar staffing services in the United States. It supplies on demand general labor to various industries under the Labor Ready brand; skilled labor to manufacturing and logistics industries under the Spartan Staffing brand; and trades people for commercial, industrial, and residential construction, and building and plant maintenance industries under the CLP Resources brand. The company also provides mechanics and technicians to the aviation maintenance, repair and overhaul, aerospace manufacturing, and assembly industries, as well as to other transportation industries under the Plane Techs brand; and temporary drivers to the transportation and distribution industries under the Centerline brand. It primarily serves small and medium-size businesses. The company was formerly known as Labor Ready, Inc. and changed its name to TrueBlue, Inc. in December 2007. TrueBlue, Inc. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Tacoma, Washington.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Jonathan Yates]

  When looking at small cap stocks, it is useful to compare the company with others that have expanded in both share price and size. For those considering investing in the $100 billion staffing industry, the growth of TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI) shows what could be the potential path for Labor SMART (OTCBB: LTNC), as both operate in the $29 billion demand labor sector. Other firms have done well in the staffing industry include Paychex (NASDAQ: PAYX) and ManPower Group (NYSE: MAN).

• [By idahansen]

  The entire demand labor industry should do well as the US Department of Labor just reported that 169,000 more jobs were added to the American economy. The more work there is, the more demand there is for the services of staffing solutions firms such as Labor SMART, Paychex (NASDAQ: PAYX), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), and Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI).

• [By Jonathan Yates]

  For those looking to invest in real estate stocks, highly recommended is the Dr. Housing Bubble blog. In a recent posting, the "Dr." pointed out that there was a "Lost Generation" when it came to household income. That has not happened for those investing in staffing industry stocks such as Paychex (NASDAQ: PAYX), Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI), TrueBlue, Inc. (NYSE: TBI), and Labor SMART (OTCBB: LTNC).

Top Growth Stocks To Own For 2015: Waste Management Inc.(WM)

Waste Management, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides waste management services to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in North America. It offers collection, transfer, recycling, and disposal services. The company also owns, develops, and operates waste-to-energy and landfill gas-to-energy facilities in the United States. Its collection services involves in picking up and transporting waste and recyclable materials from where it was generated to a transfer station, material recovery facility, or disposal site; and recycling operations include collection and materials processing, plastics materials recycling, and commodities recycling. In addition, it provides recycling brokerage, which includes managing the marketing of recyclable materials for third parties; and electronic recycling services, such as collection, sorting, and disassembling of discarded computers, communications equipment, and other electronic equipment. Further, the company e ngages in renting and servicing portable restroom facilities to municipalities and commercial customers under the Port-o-Let name; and involves in landfill gas-to-energy operations comprising recovering and processing the methane gas produced naturally by landfills into a renewable energy source, as well as provides street and parking lot sweeping services. Additionally, it offers portable self-storage, fluorescent lamp recycling, and medical waste services for healthcare facilities, pharmacies, and individuals, as well as provides services on behalf of third parties to construct waste facilities. The company was formerly known as USA Waste Services, Inc. and changed its name to Waste Management, Inc. in 1998. Waste Management, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is based in Houston, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Holly LaFon]

  He is avoiding Apple (AAPL) and IPOs, as they remind him of 1983, the year he learned the beauty of boring when blue chips such as Waste Management (WM) and Pepsico (PEP) were stumbling and selling cheap, while 30 glitzy PC stocks went public and soared. Since then, the blue chips have overcome their problems and rose in value again, and most of the PC companies are gone.

• [By Jonas Elmerraji]

  Investors think Waste Management (WM) is a garbage stock right now. Why else would WM's short interest ratio hover around 12.6? Of course, Waste Management is in fact a garbage stock of sorts -- it is the largest waste management service provider in the country. The firm boasts more than 270 landfills and a massive fleet of trash collection vehicles that spans the U.S.

  When I think garbage firms, the first thing that comes to mind is dividends: WM and its peers historically have generous, recession-resistant dividend payouts. Currently, Waste Management's yield adds up to 3.36% annually. Don't forget, dividends are like kryptonite to short sellers.

  WM's willingness to embrace innovation has big potential in the years ahead. Right now, the firm's portfolio includes 22 waste-to-energy plants that are designed to turn the waste that WM literally gets paid to collect into renewable energy that the firm gets paid for again. At this point, the firm's energy plants make up a very small part of its total business, but waste-to-energy projects and the recent acquisition of small oil service firms should look attractive to investors right now.

  Earnings in two months look like the next big catalyst for a short squeeze in WM.

• [By Chris Hill]

  Waste Management (NYSE: WM  ) reported a slight decline in first-quarter profits but revenues increased. Shares of the trash giant hit their highest point since 1999. In this installment of Motley Fool Money, our analysts talk about the future of Waste Management.

• [By Maxx Chatsko]

  Consider that municipalities and industrial giants such as�Waste Management� (NYSE: WM  ) �are converting their fleets -- in this case garbage trucks -- to�run on natural gas fuels�(link opens a video). It's a little easier for Waste Management, since it uses biogas generated from its managed landfills to fuel its own vehicles. Clean Energy Fuels also sources biomethane from one of its landfills in Dallas. In fact, the facility can produce up to 36,000 gasoline-equivalent gallons�each day. It's like the old saying goes: One man's trash is another man's fuel.��

Top Growth Stocks To Own For 2015: Crocs Inc.(CROX)

Crocs, Inc. and its subsidiaries engage in the design, development, manufacture, marketing, and distribution of footwear, apparel, and accessories for men, women, and children. The company primarily offers casual and athletic shoes, and shoe charms. It also designs and sells a range of footwear and accessories that utilize its proprietary closed cell-resin, called Croslite. The company?s footwear products include boots, sandals, sneakers, mules, and flats. In addition, it provides footwear products for the hospital, restaurant, hotel, and hospitality markets, as well as general foot care and diabetic-needs markets. Further, the company offers leather and ethylene vinyl acetate based footwear, sandals, and printed apparels principally for the beach, adventure, and action sports markets; and accessories comprising snap-on charms. The company sells its products through the United States and international retailers and distributors, as well as directly to end-user consumers th rough its company-operated retail stores, outlets, kiosks, and Web stores primarily under the Crocs Work, Crocs Rx, Jibbitz, Ocean Minded, and YOU by Crocs brand names. As of December 31, 2010, it operated 164 retail kiosks located in malls and other high foot traffic areas; 138 retail stores; 76 outlet stores; and 46 Web stores. Crocs, Inc. operates in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. The company was formerly known as Western Brands, LLC and changed its name to Crocs, Inc. in January 2005. Crocs, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Niwot, Colorado.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Chris Hill]

  Visa (NYSE: V  ) and Under Armour (NYSE: UA  ) hit new all-time highs. General Motors (NYSE: GM  ) appears to be turning the corner in Europe. And second-quarter profits for Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX  ) fell a whopping 43%. In this installment of Investor Beat, Motley Fool analysts David Hanson and Jason Moser discuss four stocks making moves on Thursday.

5 Stocks With Awful Earnings Momentum — FNBN GYRO MTGE PNX SHLD

Popular Posts: 8 Pharmaceutical Stocks to Buy Now4 Commercial Banking Stocks to Buy Now7 Biotechnology Stocks to Buy Now Recent Posts: 5 Stocks With Prime Earnings Momentum — KNSY REGI STV FTEK EVAC 5 Stocks With Awful Earnings Momentum — FNBN GYRO MTGE PNX SHLD 5 Insurance Stocks to Sell Now View All Posts

This week, these five stocks have the worst ratings in Earnings Momentum, one of the eight Fundamental Categories on Portfolio Grader.

FNB United () is a bank holding company. FNBN gets F’s in Equity and Cash Flow as well. .

Gyrodyne Company of America, Inc. () leases industrial and commercial real estate to diversified entities. GYRO gets F’s in Earnings Growth, Equity, Cash Flow and Operating Margin Growth as well. .

American Capital Mortgage Investment Corp. () invests in, finances, and manages a portfolio of mortgage-related investments, such as agency mortgage investments, non-agency mortgage investments and other mortgage-related investments. MTGE gets F’s in Earnings Growth, Earnings Surprises, Cash Flow, Operating Margin Growth and Sales Growth as well. .

Phoenix Companies, Inc. () is the holding company of Phoenix Life Insurance Company. PNX also gets F’s in Earnings Growth and Sales Growth. Shares of the stock have declined 17.1% since January 1. This is worse than the S&P 500, which has remained flat. .

Sears Holdings Corporation () is a retail conglomerate with full-line and specialty retail stores. SHLD also gets F’s in Analyst Earnings Revisions, Equity, Cash Flow and Sales Growth. The price of SHLD is down 20.7% since the first of the year. .

Louis Navellier’s proprietary Portfolio Grader stock ranking system assesses roughly 5,000 companies every week based on a number of fundamental and quantitative measures. Stocks are given a letter grade based on their results — with A being “strong buy,” and F being “strong sell.” Explore the tool here.

3 Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Professional traders running mutual funds and hedge funds don't just look at a stock's price moves; they also track big changes in volume activity. Often when above-average volume moves into an equity, it precedes a large spike in volatility.

>>5 Hated Earnings Stocks You Should Love

Major moves in volume can signal unusual activity, such as insider buying or selling -- or buying or selling by "superinvestors."

Unusual volume can also be a major signal that hedge funds and momentum traders are piling into a stock ahead of a catalyst. These types of traders like to get in well before a large spike, so it's always a smart move to monitor unusual volume. That said, remember to combine trend and price action with unusual volume. Put them all together to help you decipher the next big trend for any stock.

>>5 Rocket Stocks to Buy for a Market Bounce

With that in mind, let's take a look at several stocks rising on unusual volume recently.

SodaStream International

SodaStream International (SODA) engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of home beverage carbonation systems that enable consumers to transform ordinary tap water instantly into carbonated soft drinks and sparkling water. This stock closed up 7.6% to $40.45 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 2.44 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 1.38 million

Volume % Change: %

>>4 Big Stocks to Trade (or Not)

From a technical perspective, SODA ripped higher here with above-average volume. This stock recently formed a triple bottom chart pattern at $36.68, $36.55 and $35.27. Following that bottom, shares of SODA have started to rebound sharply higher with strong upside volume flows. That move is quickly pushing shares of SODA within range of triggering a big breakout trade. That trade will hit if SODA manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance at $40.90 to its gap-down-day high from last month at $41.62 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in SODA as long as it's trending above Monday's low of $38 or above some more near-term support at $37.28 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 1.38 million shares. If that breakout hits soon, then SODA will set up to re-fill some of its previous gap-down-day zone that started just above $50.

BJ's Restaurants

BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) owns and operates casual dining restaurants in the U.S. The company's restaurants offer pizzas, beers, appetizers, entrees, pastas, sandwiches, salads, and desserts. This stock closed up 2.6% to $28.66 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 1.90 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 440,360

Volume % Change: 305%

>>5 Stocks Poised for Breakouts

From a technical perspective, BJRI trended modestly higher here with above-average volume. This stock has been downtrending for the last month and change, with shares moving lower from its high of $32 to its recent low of $26.98. During that downtrend, shares of BJRI have been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That said, shares of BJRI have started to spike higher off that $26.98 low and the stock now looks ready to reverse its downtrend and possibly enter a new uptrend.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in BJRI as long as it's trending above that recent low of $26.98 and then once it sustains a move or close above those Monday's high of $28.67 to its 50-day moving average of $29.68 with volume that hits near or above 440,360 shares. If we get that move soon, then BJRI will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels $32 to $32.50, or even $33.61.

RPC

RPC (RES) provides oilfield services and equipment for oil and gas companies engaged in the exploration, production, and development of oil and gas properties in the U.S., Canada, Eastern Europe, Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, China, New Zealand. This stock closed up 3.5% at $17.10 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 2.06 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 717,326

Volume % Change: 211%

>>5 Big Trades to Take in February

From a technical perspective, RES jumped notably higher here right above some near-term support at $16.06 with above-average volume. Market players should now look for a continuation move higher in the short-term if RES manages to take out Monday's high of $17.44 to its 50-day moving average of $17.69 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in RES as long as it's trending above some key near-term support at $16.06 and then once it sustains a move or close above $17.44 to $17.69 with volume that's near or above 717,326 shares. If we get that move soon, then RES will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $18 to its 52-week high at $19.38. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give RES a chance to tag or trend north of $20.

To see more stocks rising on unusual volume, check out the Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.

RELATED LINKS:

>>3 Hot Stocks on Traders' Radars

>>4 Stocks Under $10 Moving Higher

>>5 Ways to Invest Like a Pension Fund

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.

Starting the new year in Obamacare limbo

Some Obmaacare applicants may not realize they aren't insured until they pay their first premium.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Planning to use your new Obamacare insurance benefits early in the new year? If you don't have your brand spanking new ID card, you'd better bring along your wallet.

Insurers and health care providers are bracing for some chaos at the start of 2014 when the newly insured begin to use their Obamacare health coverage.

Because of the repeated, last-minute deadline extensions, some applicants' enrollments may be incomplete in insurers' systems on Jan. 1.

This is particularly true of those who wait until after the first of the year to pay. Many insurers are giving consumers until Jan. 10 to send in their first payment and will make benefits retroactive to Jan. 1. But coverage will not actually take effect until the payment is processed.

There could also be errors in the files being transmitted by Obamacare exchanges to insurers.

"There's no question, it's a little bit complicated," said Susan Millerick, an Aetna spokeswoman. "There could be a gap, which is regrettable, but at this point unavoidable."

Here's how it will work in many cases: If you go to the pharmacy or doctor before you've made your first payment to your insurer, you may have to shell out the entire amount upfront and then file for reimbursement.

If you have paid but there's a problem with your coverage, you may have to spend time with the insurer's customer service line.

Insurers say they will be flexible, and many insurers have beefed up their call center staffs.

Share your story: Are you signing up for Obamacare?

Before they seek care, consumers should make sure they have their ID card in hand, insurers say. Once applicants' payments are processed, most insurers will allow them to print a temporary card from the company website so they don't have to wait several days for it to arrive in the mail. If that's not possible, patients can ask providers to call insurers to verify coverage.

Some providers may be willing to bill the insurer before collecting payment from the patient, said Rick Yearry, chief external affairs officer for Montana Health Co-Op, an insurer.

Newly insured Obamacare patients visiting UnityPoint Health Jones Regional Medical Center in Iowa will not be asked to pay in full upfront, said Eric Briesemeister, the hospital's chief executive. The h! ospital will inform them of their financial responsibility should the insurance not go through, but it will wait for coverage to be set up before billing.

At the clinic associated with the medical center, schedulers might ask patients to wait until their coverage is in effect. But it will also see consumers regardless and bill later.

"We would go ahead and take care of them," Briesemeister said.

  Last-minute rush to sign up for Obamacare

Pharmacies are also preparing for handling patients whose coverage is in question.

They have had more recent experience with these types of problems. When Medicare's prescription drug coverage was implemented in 2006, there were many seniors left in limbo. The federal government told pharmacies to fill the prescriptions and it would catch up on the paperwork later, said Michael Leavitt, who was health and human services secretary at the time.

Walgreens is working with both insurers and customers to minimize problems at the pharmacy counter. The company is asking insurers to send nightly updates of its enrollment files so it can locate customer ID numbers of customers, while asking customers to try to get their ID numbers from their insurers before coming in.

But for customers whose ID numbers can't be found, the pharmacy giant says it will fill up to a 30-day supply of traditional brand or generic medicine as long as the person can show proof of enrollment. Walgreens could find itself on the hook by doing this, but hopes it will be reimbursed by the insurer once the customer's paperwork is settled.

"We understand the challenges this presents to certain people," said Kermit Crawford, president of the pharmacy, health and wellness division at Walgreens, which has 8,100 locations in all 50 stat! es. "Help! ing insured Americans during the transition period is not only good for us, but good for our patients."

Of course, some newly insured will have to shell out large sums when they visit the doctor or pharmacist even if their insurance is in order. That's because many Obamacare plans, like many insurance policies, have large deductibles that must be met before insurance kicks in. Consumers should make sure they know their obligations before they seek care.

Don't let the IRS gobble your IRA with tax…

As the end of the year approaches, older investors need to pay close attention to the amount of money they have to withdraw from their retirement accounts — whether they like it or not.

So-called Required Minimum Distributions are a fixed amount that must be taken out of a retirement plan each calendar year once the beneficiary turns age 70½. RMD rules apply to all employee-sponsored retirement plans, including a 401(k), 403(b) and IRA — and if you don't meet the minimum by Dec. 31, you could wind up paying steep tax penalties as a result.

While it may sound a bit silly that the IRS forces you to spend your own money in retirement, especially to those who don't have a huge nest egg, the idea is to prevent the well-off from taking advantage of favorable tax treatment for retirement funds. After all, if you can keep growing your money tax free forever in an IRA … why not simply let it ride and leave a massive inheritance for your heirs, grown with the help of tax-free investment?

So, if you are lucky enough to have a big retirement account and have hit age 70½ in 2013, make sure you remember to tap that IRA this year before the tax man does on your next return.

The specific amount of your RMD will vary, and is determined by dividing the total market value of your retirement account by a life expectancy figure provided by the IRS in its Publication 590. There are also other factors, including your beneficiary status should you have a spouse who is eligible to share in your retirement funds, or your employment status, should you continue to work very late into life.

But, as a general rule, required minimum distributions start at about 5% of your retirement fund and move slowly higher as a percentage over time.

Here's a working example: You're single and just turned 70½ in 2013, with $500,000 in your IRA. IRS gives you a divisor of 27.4 for your nest egg — meaning you must withdraw $18,248 in the calendar year, or roughly 3.7% of that total.

Now for so! me Americans, $18,000 or so may not cover living expenses, and they will have to withdraw more or rely on Social Security to bridge the gap. But for those who have more than enough, it is wise to use the retirement funds first to avoid penalties that may be as high as 50% of what the IRS determines should have been withdrawn.

So using the previous example, if you have $500,000 in your IRA and don't spend a penny, you could see Uncle Sam claim about $9,124 of your cash anyway.

Admittedly, many Americans are woefully underprepared for retirement and don't have the luxury of simply forgoing distributions from their retirement accounts. According to the AARP, the average 401(k) balance of those over 55 was $255,000 to start 2013, meaning a required minimum distribution of about $9,300 a year to start — hardly a king's ransom.

But if you're in the enviable position of having enough resources beyond your IRA or 401(k) to live on, pay close attention to the RMD requirement because you could wind up getting charged big-time for not accessing your retirement cash after age 70½ as the government intended when it approved favorable tax rules for these plans.

Remember, you can always take the minimum out and reinvest it. In many cases, this is a cheaper alternative to simply forfeiting half of your RMD to Uncle Sam.

Jeff Reeves is the editor of InvestorPlace.com and the author of The Frugal Investor's Guide to Finding Great Stocks.

ExxonMobil: The Bad News is in the Stock…or Maybe Not

If investors were hoping to hit black gold with ExxonMobil (XOM) this year, they’ve been horribly disappointed.

Associated Press

ExxonMobil’s shares have dropped 11.1% so far this year, after reporting disappointing earnings and declining production. It’s also underperformed both ConocoPhillips (COP), which has fallen 8.5% this year,  and Chevron (CVX),which is off  10.7%, though neither have exactly sparkled this year either.

Argus analyst Michael Burke, however, argues that the market is overreacting to ExxonMobil’s bad news. He writes:

We think that investors have become too pessimistic about the company's production profile (47% gas in 4Q) and that this negative sentiment is reflected in the stock's current valuation. In our view, ExxonMobil will remain the global energy leader, and a superior allocator of capital, as demonstrated by its leading returns on invested capital. We also believe that the company's exceptionally strong financial position, as indicated by its AAA credit ratings, will enable it to return excess cash to shareholders. In short, we believe that [ExxonMobil] will put capital to work in the most productive manner possible, and that it will return undeployed capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. Although [ExxonMobil] shares are trading at a premium to peers based on P/E, price/book, and price/sales, we believe that these premiums are warranted given the company's low debt, strong cash flow, and healthy operating margins. Our $104 target price implies a multiple of 12.9-times our 2014 EPS estimate and a potential 12-month return of 19%, including the dividend.

Oppenheimer’s Fadel Gheit and Robert Du Boff think ExxonMobil’s problems could just be starting:

[ExxonMobil], like the rest of its peers, is facing an uphill battle maintaining, let alone growing, its production, as the low-hanging fruit has already been picked. Higher capital spending, rising costs, and increasing government take have squeezed earnings and reduced returns. Lower oil prices could dim [ExxonMobil's] earnings outlook as access to economically attractive energy resources is becoming more difficult and costly. At $90 oil and $5 natural gas, [ExxonMobil] could not internally fund its share buyback, and at $80 oil it has to borrow to fund CAPEX and dividends. We think [ExxonMobil] should abandon setting production targets and focus instead on growing its per-share metrics. In our view, its primary objective should be value, not volume.

Shares of ExxonMobil have gained 0.1% to $89.94 at 1:55 p.m., while ConocoPhillips has risen 0.5% to $64.66 and Chevron has advanced 0.2% to $111.47.

Will 3D Systems’ Growth Strategy Be a Winner?

Since the beginning of December, 3D Systems Inc. (NYSE: DDD) has made three acquisitions. The latest one was announced Wednesday morning — the 3D printing company acquired a team of engineers and other assets from Xerox Corp. (NYSE: XRX) for $32.5 million in cash. Earlier in December, 3D Systems acquired a maker of 3D printer materials based in Ohio and ceramics printer company Figulo.

In the announcement of the deal with Xerox, Avi Reichental, 3D Systems’ CEO, said:

The stronger our marketplace leadership, the more powerful our economic model becomes. Simply put, a solidified position translates directly to higher revenue, higher profitability and greater earnings power over time, and we are willing to sacrifice short term earnings to get there faster.

Technology and growth over profits — that is one way to manage a company, but sometimes that approach is not so welcomed by investors. And 3D Systems did not just recently conjure up this strategy.

In its third quarter, 3D Systems made four acquisitions with a total value of about $27.5 million, to go with three acquisitions made in the second quarter at a cost of nearly $97.5 million. In the past three quarters, the company has spent more than $150 million on acquisitions on total sales of $358.6 million and gross profits of $187.5 million.

The company signed a development deal with the Motorola Mobility unit of Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) in November to create a high-speed 3D printing production platform to develop custom modular smartphones in an effort dubbed Project Ara by Google.

The good news for investors is that 3D Systems is essentially debt free, except for $11.3 million in convertible senior notes. The better news is that the company’s cash holdings at the end of the third quarter totaled $345 million.

Shareholders have apparently signed on to the acquisition strategy. The company’s share price is up nearly 170% in the past 12 months, a larger gain than peers The ExOne Co. (NASDAQ: XONE), up nearly 100%, and Stratasys Ltd. (NASDAQ: SSYS), up about 76%. And 3D Systems’ stock has jumped 50% in the past three months, more than double any of its peers’ share price increases.

3D Systems shares closed at $81.99 on Wednesday, in a 52-week range of $27.88 to $84.85.

Note to state legislators: Voters' retirement security is your responsibility, too

The overall cost of retirement can sometimes seem difficult to grasp, but Main Street investors are fully aware that a dignified post-working lifestyle doesn't come cheap. It takes years of careful planning and discipline to get there, and unnecessary barriers and expenses today can have a disproportional impact on an investor's life after he or she leaves the workforce.

So how would these same investors react if they knew their own state legislators might be working to drive up the cost of retirement even further?

Two recent bills in Minnesota and Ohio would have done exactly that. Early versions of SF 552 in Minnesota and HB 59 in Ohio would have broadened those states' sales tax bases to include all professional services, including financial advice. If these provisions had become law, clients in each of these states would have faced significant new costs — a 5.5% increase in Minnesota, 5% in Ohio — every time they received guidance from or placed a trade through an adviser.

Getting Clients to Follow Your Advice: The Panicky Investor

As all advisors know, it’s one thing to provide clients with appropriate advice and another thing to actually get them to follow that advice. That's especially the case when clients experience short-term market fluctuations, have troubling conversations with their peers, engage in too much CNBC watching or fall prey to intrafamily disputes over money.

In this series of reports, Investment Advisor columnist and psychotherapist Olivia Mellan and financial behavior specialist Kol Birke of Commonwealth Financial Network address some common scenarios that advisors face in getting their clients to follow through on their advice. This advice for advisors flowed out of a web seminar hosted by Investment Advisor and ThinkAdvisor editor Jamie Green late last year.

Scenario 1: The Panicky Investor 

Jamie Green: Your client, a high-powered corporate executive, has been shaken first by the sharp decline in her portfolio’s value during the recession, and now by the continuing squabbles in Washington. She orders you to liquidate her equity and bond holdings and go to all cash. She’s highly paid, but not so high that she can afford to be out of the market. How do you respond? 

Olivia Mellan: I would speculate that this client is in that “deer in the headlights” state where she cannot make any rational decisions. Daniel Goldman calls it “amygdala highjack.” When people are in this stressed-out, panicked state, they really cannot hear and they cannot take sensible action.

The first thing is to listen to her fears and empathize with her. Feeling heard will lighten the emotional charge so she can listen to what wisdom and rational suggestions you might be able to provide. You can also teach her that when people are in a high-stress mode, decision-making comes from their primitive survival place, which is always dysfunctional. It’s a very bad time and a bad way to make important decisions. 

Kol Birke: I strongly support what Olivia suggests about having these deeper conversations. They’re like compound interest: the earlier you have them, the more they pay off down the road.

Using a bucket-based approach to retirement planning gives you a way to reframe the conversation. Your client is already holding some percent in cash—it could be two percent, six percent, whatever you’ve allocated. Given that she’s highly paid, that might be 18 months worth of living expenses. By breaking this out visually, showing the client that they’ve got an amount set aside in cash, oftentimes that can assuage their need to go completely into cash.

If that doesn’t take care of it, remember that you’re not actually looking for action; you’re looking for inaction. The client is already invested as they should be. In a momentary panic, they’re about to take an action that would be against their best interest. So it may seem a little devilish, but you might try flooding them with too many options. (See “Too Many Choices” sidebar.) What I mean by that is to take out your calculator or your financial planning program and show them a handful of different scenarios. Talk about what they like and don’t like about each one. At the end, ask them, “Well, at this point we’ve talked about a variety of things. What options do you think make most sense, and why?” If you flood a client with options in this way, they may actually take no action at all, protecting them from their potentially damaging instinct to go to cash 

Going Deeper: Too Many Choices Can Stall Decision-Making 

Studies have shown that offering people too many choices may cause them to stick with the status quo—a tactic that can be useful if clients want to change from an agreed-on plan to something that isn’t in their best interest. To illustrate, Kol Birke of Commonwealth told webinar participants about a research study in which doctors were given the case of an older patient who was about to be sent for hip replacement surgery.

Birke explained, “Half of the doctors in the study saw a note in the case file that said, ‘Actually, we forgot one thing. We forgot to try ibuprofen. Would you like to pull the patient out of the queue for hip replacement and try ibuprofen first?’” As a result, 73% of these doctors did try ibuprofen instead of surgery.

Birke continued, “The other half of the doctors received the same patient’s case file, but their note said, ‘Would you like to send this patient on to hip replacement, or would you like to try them on ibuprofen or this other anti-inflammatory called Piroxicam? So would you like to send them on to hip replacement or try medication? And if one of the drugs, which one would you like to try?’

“Rationally,” Birke noted, “the doctors in the second group should have jumped at the possibility of trying medication first, because now they’ve got two chances to keep the patient out of surgery. In fact, Piroxicam is more powerful than ibuprofen, and so might have even a better chance of working.”

However, in this case only 52% of the doctors in the second group actually chose to go with one of the drugs. Why? Because now they faced a second decision (which medication to use) instead of a single decision between hip replacement and a drug. Because the brain is lazy and wants to avoid a second decision, 21% more of the doctors opted to continue with the status quo, which was surgery.

Read the original Investment Advisor column and the entire series of scenarios.

Dow Spikes on Jobs Report as Unemployment Falls to 7%

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over daily movements, we do like to keep an eye on market changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

As all indicators leading up to it predicted, the November jobs report soared past expectations. The country added 203,000 jobs last month, up from 200,000 in October, and beat economist estimates at 188,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dropped three-tenths of a percent to 7%, taking a major step to the Federal Reserve's goal of lowering the jobless rate to 6.5%. As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) jumped 199 points, or 1.3%, while the S&P 500 gained 1.1%. Not only was it a strong sign to see a second straight month of 200,000 new jobs added to payrolls, but it was also reassuring to see the market react positively to the news, instead of selling off in fears that the robust employment growth would spark the Fed's stimulus taper. The market's reaction seemed to indicate that it's starting to believe the economy is strong enough to stand on its own, without the Fed's assistance.

The number of long-term unemployed Americans held steady at 4.1 million, though that figure has dropped more than 700,000 in the last year. However, the number of involuntary part-time workers dropped 4% to 7.7 million, a strong sign for those struggling to get out of structural unemployment.

Among stocks riding the rising tide today was Diamond Foods (NASDAQ: DMND  ) , which jumped 6.8% after it beat earnings estimates last night. The maker of Pop Secret Popcorn and Kettle Chips posted an adjusted EPS of $0.18, better than expectations of $0.14, even as revenue fell 9.2% to $234.7 million, below the consensus. The company is in the midst of a multiyear repositioning strategy, and CEO Brian Driscoll noted the "headwinds from lower walnut supply and Emerald relaunch costs." For the year, management said it expects adjusted EBITDA to improve even as it fell in the fiscal first quarter.  While Diamond still has legal woes to contend with, shares have nearly doubled this year, and its strong brand portfolio gives reason to believe that they will reemerge from the turnaround as a stronger company.

Moving in the opposite direction today was American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO  ) , which finished down 9% after it joined the vast ranks of apparel retailers posting dismal holiday-quarter guidance. The teen retailer said it sees profits for the current quarter at just $0.26-$0.30, below analyst estimates at $0.39. Last year, the company made $0.55 per share in the fourth quarter. Oddly enough, American Eagle is actually doing better than its rivals Aeropostale and Abercrombie & Fitch as consumers seem to be turning away from their brand-heavy apparel and instead shopping at fast fashion retailers such as H&M. With a trend like that confronting them, it seems like those three mall-based retailers have several ugly quarters ahead of them.

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The Bank of Canada’s Phantom Rate Cut

A little more than a year ago, the Bank of Canada (BoC) was notable for being one of the few banks in the developed world to take a hawkish stance on the future direction of interest rates. But the central bank has since abandoned an upward rate bias for a decidedly dovish posture, and its overnight rate remains at 1 percent, where it’s been since late 2010.

Unfortunately, the BoC’s policymakers are largely constrained from either raising or lowering this key short-term rate any time soon. Though inflation is at worrisome lows, a rate cut would simply spur greater borrowing from consumers at a time when many economists are already concerned about record levels of household debt and the prospect of a real estate bubble. And raising rates would remove liquidity from an anemic economy before it shifts toward new areas of growth.

So what does a central bank do when it’s largely precluded from taking action? Well, its outlook still has the ability to move markets, and jawboning can often help achieve policy ends in the absence of actual rate changes.

BoC Governor Stephen Poloz is focused on helping the economy shift from slackening domestic demand to growth driven by exports and business investment. In its latest statement, however, the bank noted that non-commodity exports “continue to disappoint,” while business investment, though up from prior lows, is recovering “more slowly than anticipated.”

Of course, improvement in the latter is likely contingent upon the former, and until the US and other major trading partners start to produce consistently strong economic growth, the BoC’s best bet for boosting export activity is to engineer a sustained decline in the currency.

To be sure, the Canadian dollar has already suffered a fall. After trading above parity with the US dollar for much of 2011 and 2012, the loonie sold off in earnest earlier this year, dropping below that key threshold in mid-February. The Canadian dollar currently trades at a two-year low near USD0.94, down about 7.8 percent from its trailing-year high.

At the same time, unlike his predecessor Mark Carney, who regularly cited the “persistently strong” exchange rate in the bank’s interest rate announcements, Poloz has publicly assumed the role of a more traditional central banker who’s narrowly fixated on inflation, declaring the bank’s inflation target as “sacrosanct.”

But that doesn’t mean Poloz isn’t privately cheering a decline in the currency. After all, prior to helming the BoC, he headed Export Development Canada, the government’s export credit agency. As such, he’s keenly aware of how the loonie’s relative strength until recently has likely undermined the country’s export sector.

But rather than overtly address the exchange rate, the bank’s newfound dovishness, which implies the possibility of a rate cut, could help push the currency lower. That’s what economists with CIBC World Markets term a “phantom rate cut,” which is one that’s merely hinted at, but never actually delivered. In a similar manner, they recall that the bank previously warned about a rate hike that never came to pass.

Because of that as well as other weakening fundamentals, some economists have dramatically lowered their forecasts for the Canadian dollar, including Goldman Sachs, which predicts the currency will trade near USD0.88 next year. That attention-getting forecast is far gloomier than the average forecast, which according to Bloomberg shows the currency continuing to trade near its current level through next year.

A weakening Canadian dollar may be a dispiriting development for US investors who enjoyed having growth and income from Canadian stocks enhanced by a strong loonie. But it’s an absolutely essential development for the country’s economy to get back on track, and that should ultimately be a good thing for our investments.